2008 AFC Championship Game Picks, Predictions, and Odds
January 19, 2008
Our Pick: San Diego +14
The New England Patriots are favored by more than two touchdowns in this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. If the Chargers are able to pull off the upset against the 17-0 Patriots, it will be considered one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. The Patriots are already responsible for one of the biggest upsets the NFL has ever seen when it knocked off the high powered St. Louis Rams as two-touchdown underdogs in 2002. Will New England get a taste of what it feels like to be on the other end of the stick this week?The Chargers come into this Sunday’s game having won 8 consecutive games. They shocked the defending Super Bowl champs last week, despite All-Pro tailback LaDainian Tomlinson going down early, Phillip Rivers sitting out much of the second half, and Antonio Gates hobbling on an injured toe. Will oddsmakers be embarrassed again? Second string players stepped up for San Diego last week, but against a healthy, high octane Patriots club, San Diego’s stars are going to have to carry the torch. Rivers is expected to be near 100 percent and most of the pressure figures to fall on his shoulders as New England will likely stuff the run, forcing Rivers to beat them—just as they did against Jacksonville last week. I guess we’ll see what Rivers is really made of against the NFL’s best. L.T. is expected to play but his status is still not solidified. Gates will also be out there and hopefully will be more effective this week. San Diego does have one of the best defenses in the NFL to fall back on. Merriman and Phillips were a nightmare for Manning last week just as they have been for the opposition all season long. If these guys can break through and take Brady out of his comfort level, the Chargers will have a chance. If not, expect to see another near perfect day from Tom Terrific.Tom Brady only had twp incomplete passes against the Jags. Both of those were drops. The guy is dialed in and is playing at a level above anyone else in the game right now. New England also showed that it can run the football by putting up nearly 150 rushing yards last week—most of those came from Laurence Maroney. San Diego will also have to decide how it is going to play in the secondary. With Moss double covered, the other Pats receivers were wide open all day long. Will the Chargers run the risk of playing Moss one on one because of it? Don’t be surprised if they switch to that and roll the dice is “the other guys” are killing them early. Defensively, New England has been susceptible to the pass. Garrard got them for 270 yards last week and Eli Manning was very effective against them in the regular season finale. Some of this is because of the Patriots’ decision to take away the run, but they might even have to play a little bit more straight up if Rivers is as good as he was in the Divisional game last week.
AFC Title Game Odds:San Diego Chargers +14.5 at BetUS
New England Patriots -14.5 at BetUSTotal is set at 49
Predicted Score:
San Diego Chargers 17
New England Patriots 31
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