2008 Houston Rockets NBA Preview & Season Predictions

Written October 8, 2008 by Luke Knight

A lot has to be said for Rick Adelman and the direction he has taken this Houston Rockets team since replacing Jeff Van Gundy. He has incorporated his motion offense, which emphasizes ball movement and spot-up shooting from beyond the arc. He also got the Rockets to play defense, which resulted in Houston allowing the 4th fewest points in the NBA and lead the NBA in rebounding last season. Keep reading to find out if we think the Rockets will continue to improve on last year’s 55-27 record and 3rd place finish in the division. The Houston Rockets are +750 odds at BetUS to win the Western Conference Title.

Rafer Alston finally emerged as the floor leader last season for the Rockets. Alston not only distributed the ball well to McGrady, Battier, and Yao, but also became more of a scoring threat himself, knocking down the 3-point shot to keep defenses honest. Alston has shown great durability so far in his career, but if something were to happen this is not a deep position for Houston. Aaron Brooks, second-year man out of Oregon, has showed flashes in limited playing time, but to expect him to fill the role as a starter would be a tall order. Brooks should be decent off the bench though and will continue to improve. Steve Francis is available on the roster, but chronic knee problems have prevented him from playing any major minutes since 2006. Francis averaged 19.9 minutes per game last season, so he will get some minutes off the bench.

Tracy McGrady stepped up when Yao Ming went down last season. McGrady, who also missed 15 games before the all-star break, missed only one game after the break. T-Mac is a proven winner, at least in the regular season, but has yet to win a playoff round in 7 tries. McGrady averaged 21.6 points per game and 5.9 assists in 37.0 minutes. The Rockets have given McGrady some backup at this position, adding Brent Barry, who has made a name in recent seasons as a 3-point specialist in San Antonio. Luther Head also can drop bombs from behind the arc, despite doing little else. Both Barry and Head should provide offense when McGrady is on the bench or shifts to the front court.

The Rockets brought in Ron Artest, who averaged 20.5 points and 5.8 rebounds last season. Artest played fro Adelman in Sacramento and has said that Adelman has been his favorite coach to play for to date. If Artest can check his ego at the door, this gives the Rockets a huge upgrade on the court. Artest is a lockdown defender against either small forwards or big guards. Artest will start ahead of Shane Battier, whose statistics may not dazzle you but is consistently a solid player. Battier is a tough defender, who can hit the clutch 3-point shot or pick up the key rebound. He will be the pivotal 6th man for this Rockets team, although Artest said coming in he would come off the bench if that is what Adelman thought was best. With Artest and Battier, McGrady should spend less time in the front court.

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Argentine star Luis Scola emerged as a player in the second half of the season last year. Scola benefited from Yao’s injury averaging 13.6 points and 5.8 rebounds after the break, most of which occurred while Yao was injured. Scola is not a shot blocker despite his 6-9 frame which makes him vulnerable to an extent. Carl Landry, who surprisingly adjusted well to the NBA in his first season, should pick up some minutes here. Chuck Hayes, a solid rebounder, but poor scorer and defender, could also see time. Joey Dorsey, a rookie out of Memphis, is a 6-8 and 268 pounds out of Memphis and played with brute strength in college. If he comes along quickly, he will get time here also.

Yao Ming is 7-6 and 310 pounds and he is pretty much automatic scoring down low with his post moves and short turnaround jumper. Yao has a reputation for being soft, but he gets to the line a lot and clogs the lane on defense, Rockets fans just want him to do it more. Dikembe Mutombo is still around to backup Yao in short stretches. Mutombo is a suitable backup for limited bursts when Yao needs a break, but no one wants to see Yao go down long-term with only Mutombo to fill in.

Final Analysis

Last season Yao Ming got hurt, and the Rockets still had a 22-game winning streak, which is the 2nd longest in NBA history. Even after the winning streak, the Rockets managed to finish 3rd in the division and 5th in the Conference. The Rockets were embarrassed at home and ousted from the playoffs by the Jazz, but should be better this season. We have them finishing 3rd in the Southwest division again ahead of the Mavericks and Grizzlies and behind the Hornets and Spurs. Once again the Rockets will make the playoffs, and should be competitive in the Western conference. The Rockets match up well against pretty much anyone so they are a dangerous team to play against in the playoffs. We don’t have them winning the conference, but the Rockets are +1000 odds at BetUS to win the NBA Championship.

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