2008 NFL Betting Strategies

Written by Evan Adams

Every NFL season has trends that provide profitable situations for several weeks, if not the entire year. This season 6-7 point teasers and medium priced NFL underdogs have been excellent money makers. Let’s took at these two trends further.

Professional sports bettors and handicappers love to use 6-7 point teasers in the NFL. They use these extensively because the lines are so accurate. The NFL oddsmakers in Las Vegas are by far the highest paid of any other sport, as the demand for sharp lines in professional football is huge. This season a considerable amount of games have been within a touchdown of the oddsmaker spread. Over the last three weeks, eighteen games fell within seven points of the given spread. This means that a seven point teaser in any of those games would have resulted in a win, regardless of which team was selected. However, there must be a strategy in mind when selecting which games to use for teasers. One of the most popular is selecting favorites of around 6-11 points and teasing them down to anywhere from a pick ‘em to just a 4 point favorite. The key is to go against underdogs that do not have much of a chance to win the game. A recent example was when Houston played Indianapolis a few weeks ago. The Colts were a 9 point favorite, but the Texans really didn’t have much of a chance to win. In contrast, Atlanta was around a 6 point underdog at San Diego this past Sunday. However, the Falcons have played well this season, and they had a very good chance to win outright. Therefore, teasing a disappointing Chargers team down to a pick ‘em would have been a mistake. Let’s take a look at another betting strategy that has been successful this season.

Average to above average underdogs of over a field goal have been point spread monsters this season. However, which teams are in the category of average or above average? The NFL is very competitive this season, with only two dominant teams and twenty-four average teams. Six teams are in the below average category, and they are Oakland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Detroit, Seattle, St. Louis. For the most part, these teams should only be considered as double digit road underdogs. But a very successful strategy this season has been taking the other twenty-six teams as decent underdogs, especially on the road. These teams usually not only cover but have been winning outright. Over the last few weeks, Atlanta, New Orleans, New York Jets, Denver, San Diego, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Houston have all covered as an underdog of over a field goal. This trend continues because oddsmakers have been making home teams too large of a favorite. With the balance in the league, these favorites are facing opponents with similar skill level, but the home field edge isn’t enough for them to cover spreads of over a field goal. This betting strategy should continue to be profitable for the rest of the season.

Using 6-7 point teasers and taking quality underdogs of over a field goal will provide bettors with opportunities throughout December and January. These are two strategies that professional gamblers and handicappers will use throughout the season.

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