2008 NFL Betting Trends

Written November 27, 2008 by Evan Altemus

Each NFL season there are a small number of trends that provide profitable betting situations throughout the season or until the NFL betting marketplace catches up. This season there are two distinct trends that still have value, as well as another trend that the public and oddsmakers have become aware of.

First, let’s take a look at two situations that still have value. The Detroit Lions have been the worst team in the NFL this season. They are near the bottom in almost every statistical category. The Lions cannot do the two tings that are essential in the NFL, run the football and play consistent defense. Teams have been able to move the ball with ease against them, especially on the ground. However, none of the Lions opponents have covered against the spread after playing them the previous week. Throughout the season, Detroit makes their opponents look much better than they really are which has resulted in those teams being overpriced the following week. One of the main reasons for this trend is that the Lions schedule has been filled with average teams. They haven’t played the best or worst teams this season. These mediocre opponents have the capacity to play well against the worst teams but get beaten by margin against teams of similar talent level. However, the oddsmakers over-react to their easy wins over Detroit, which causes these teams to be priced incorrectly the following week. Let’s take a look at another betting trend that still has value.

The NFL is one of the most competitive professional leagues in all of sports. Every team is loaded with talented athletes and knowledgeable coaches. However the betting public has never grasped this concept, as they only look at the scoreboard and box scores. In addition, the average bettor loves to jump on winning streaks and go against teams that the media does not view favorably. However, double digit underdogs have been a point spread monster this season. They have been 17-2 against the spread as a matter of fact! In addition, one of the point spread losses was a last minute back door cover by San Diego against Oakland, so really these underdogs should be 18-1 against the spread. These games with large point spreads usually have one team coming off of one or more good performances. They are over-confident and take their opponent lightly. Meanwhile, their opponents have been struggling and are desperate to turn things around. They are usually facing a team that the public thinks is far superior, so the underdog is motivated to come out and get a win. There is a trend this season that the public and oddsmakers have caught up to though.

A profitable trend used to be going against teams from the west coast traveling east to play in 1:00pm EST games. However, the media started to notice that these teams were struggling, as none of them were able win outright or cover a point spread. These teams were almost non-competitive with Seattle, San Diego, Arizona, and San Francisco all struggling in their early east coast games. The betting marketplace and oddsmakers have caught up to this trend though. These west coast underdogs have much larger point spreads now, and the public has been going against them as well. Oakland has played very well in early start games though with very close games at Buffalo and at Miami. Using this trend no longer provides value, as the public and NFL odds makers are fully aware of it.

Using trends that the public has not become aware of can provide several profitable situations throughout the season when making your NFL picks. Take a long look at double digit underdogs and look for opportunities to fade teams coming off of big wins over Detroit. These two trends should provide profitable opportunities in the 2nd half of the season.