2009 Final Four Expert Picks
Written April 2, 2009 by Anthony Moretti
This weekend’s Final Four will feature Michigan State taking on Connecticut and Villanova squaring off against North Carolina. UConn and North Carolina are not very surprising, though many people thought that the Huskies would be the first No. 1 seed eliminated, they are still a number one seed and their appearance here is not that big of a shock. Michigan State and Villanova, on the other hand, are both unexpected visitors to the Final Four, and both are considered underdogs yet again in Saturday’s games. Here is the important info you need to know, and my picks for the 2009 Final Four.
Michigan State Spartans vs Connecticut Huskies – Tip: 6:07 PM EST – Point Spread: Connecticut -4 – Total: 133.5 – UConn has been dominant in all four of their NCAA tournament games so far. They’ll look to do the same against a tough Michigan State team, who had to scratch and claw for everything they’ve accomplished in the tournament to this point. Of course, you could, and should argue that the Spartans have had a more difficult road. They had to face USC in the second round, who looked great coming into this match up, then it was on to face the defending champion Kansas Jayhawks, a game few though Michigan State would pull off, but they did. Then came their showdown with No. 1 seed Louisville, and there wasn’t much support for a Spartan victory, but they found a way to win yet again with their defense and methodical offense. Tom Izzo has his team playing at a higher level than just about anyone expected. In this game I think that Connecticut has the size advantage, but Kalin Lucas and Michigan State’s guards hold the edge on the perimeter, where this game could easily be won or lost. Great guard play is something that is often overlooked when one team is bigger and more physical than the other. This game shapes up to be similar to Michigan State’s game against Louisville in the Elite 8. If they can continue to play excellent defense and hit mid-range and three point shots, they have a real chance to move on here. I’ll take the points and the Spartans on Saturday. Pick: Michigan State +4
Villanova Wildcats vs North Carolina Tar Heels – Tip: 8:47 PM EST – Point Spread: North Carolina -7 – Total: 159 – Can you believe that this line opened at 4.5? It shifted 2.5 points in favor of Villanova because sportsbooks saw massive money being poured in on North Carolina. Now the books have settled on a 7 point spread (I’ve seen it as high a 7.5), which should hold unless there is another mad rush on the Tar Heels, which I wouldn’t rule out. Carolina has been great in the post-season, but don’t rule out the Wildcats. Nova got through both Duke and Pittsburgh, no small feats, to get where they are today. The Tar Heels have been the darling favorite to win the title ever since the tournament started, and while, in the end, I think they win the game, it comes down to only a few points against the ‘Cats. Pick: Villanova +7
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