2009 Final Four Matchups

Written March 31, 2009 by Steve Janus

Villanova vs North Carolina

North Carolina Tar Heels : UNC will win as long as they keep doing what they’ve been doing – outscoring anyone that challenges them to run the court and out-hustling their opponents on defense. Having Ty Lawson back for the title run is HUGE, and as long as he is healthy they are the favorite to win.

North Carolina is vulnerable in that they haven’t really had anyone challenge them. You could argue that LSU game the closest in the 2nd round with the Tigers leading UNC halfway through the 2nd half, but the Heels came back and cruised to a victory. It would be interesting to see how they might react if they are forced to play from behind again, however unlikely that might be. You can bet the Tar Heels -7 over Villanova.

Villanova Wildcats: The ‘Cats can win if they keep it simple and stick to their game plan. Nova has won throughout this tournament because they create matchup problems all over the court with a very balanced attack on both sides of the ball. This will not be as easy against the Tar Heels, but with the momentum they’ve gathered in this tournament, it’s hard to count the Wildcats completely out.

The obvious concern for Villanova is their size in the paint. They play a four-guard lineup for the most part and will struggle to contain Tyler Hansbrough, at least on paper. Nova has a lot going for them, but, top-to-bottom, they are playing the best team left in the field.

Michigan State vs Connecticut

Connecticut: For the Huskies to win their Final Four game against Michigan State, they need A.J. Price and Kemba Walker to continue their excellent production on offense. They’ll also need monster center, the 7 foot – 3 inch Hasheem Thabeet to avoid foul trouble, which has limited his playing time, but keep the aggressive edge that makes him a great rebounder and a good shot-blocker.

The Huskie’s downfall could be what I just talked about with Thabeet. If he gets into foul trouble early, plays tentatively, or they don’t find ways to get him the ball inside, Connecticut will be missing out on a golden opportunity as he can be a true force in the paint. Thabeet must be involved in the offense for UConn to win, even if it’s not scoring, he needs to get touches to collapse the defense, where he can kick the ball out to the Huskies’ sharp-shooters.

Michigan State: Michigan State could move on to the championship game if they continue to play great defense and control the pace of the game against UConn. They can’t beat the Huskies in a shoot-out, but in a game with a slower tempo the Spartans have a chance. For those who think that playing this game in Detroit isn’t significant for the Spartans, I have to disagree. The state of Michigan is behind the Spartans here, pulling for something good to happen in a state that has seen more than its fair share of difficulties this year. Bet the Spartans +4.5 against UConn.

My biggest concern for the Spartans is starting slow on offense. If Michigan State falls behind Connecticut early they will find it hard to climb back, as they simply don’t have a great offense to come back from behind with. They’ll also need to stay sharp from 3-point range, which is a big reason they were able to get past Louisville in the Elite 8 round.

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