2009 Final Four Predictions: Who Makes the Championship Game?

Written March 30, 2009 by Steve Janus

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Villanova Wildcats (Saturday, April 4th, 8:47 PM EST) – The Tar Heels are favored by 7.5 points and it’s not hard to see why. Villanova is a great story and they’ve been fun to watch, but I have to stick with UNC in this match up. North Carolina has the edge in this game in offensive points scored, field goal %, free throw %, rebounding, and creating turnovers while Nova has a decent edge in points allowed and a slight edge in points coming off of the bench. The big difference for me in this game is the North Carolina’s offense. So far no team has been able to slow it down, and while Nova’s defense has been solid, there are simply too many match up problems for them to keep the Tar Heels around a resonable number. Looking at the current college basketball odds, the line for the game is set a 7.5 right now, and I would not be surprised to see it climb by 1 to 1.5 points or more by tip. There are a number of trends working in UNC’s favore, but my favorite is that they are 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 NCAA tournament games when they are favored by 7-12.5 points. In the past in the NCAA tournament underdogs have been a good bet in the first two rounds, but a losing bet as the tournament wears on. I think that holds true as the Tar Heels win another tourney game by double-digits and punch their ticket to the Championship round.

Predicted Score: North Carolina 86, Villanova 72
Play on: North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5

Michigan State Spartans vs Connecticut Huskies (Saturday, April 4th, 6:07 PM EST) – This match up is made even more interesting by the fact that it will be played in Detroit, which will obviously work to Michigan State’s favor. Connecticut has been chosen as a 4-point favorite in what might as well be considered a road game against the Spartans. Michigan State proved against Louisville in their previous game that they can play great defense, but they will have plenty to overcome against the Huskies. Connecticut is a more prolific scoring team, they have more size in the paint, which leads to more rebounds, and they have a better turnover ratio than do the Spartans. It would really be something to see Michigan State win their Final Four game in their hometown, but unfortunately I do not see that happening. I feel like UConn has been playing with a chip on their collective shoulder since the tournament started. I would not be disappointed if Michigan State pulls off the upset (let’s face it, the state of Michigan could use something to cheer about of late), but the Huskies are the stronger team and I see them pulling away late to get the cover against the spread.

Predicted Score: Connecticut 72, Michigan State 65
Play on: Connecticut Huskies -4

Steve’s Championship Game Predcition: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Connecticut Huskies

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