2009 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Written April 30, 2009 by Steve Janus
The 2009 Kentucky Derby is set for this Saturday with a full field (at least right now) of 20 top-flight horses. This will be the 135th running of the race, and fans can look forward to another great “Running of the Roses”. Which jockey/horse combo will be in the winner’s circle this year? Let’s take a look at the contenders, as well as my picks for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
1. West Side Bernie: Bernie has been to six different tracks in his career, but he’s yet to win a race as a 3 year old. He ran very well in the Wood Memorial, finishing 2nd behind I Want Revenge. This horse is a solid closer, but could suffer from his post position.
2. Musket Man: Won the Illinois Derby as well as two lower-level races. Not great at this distance, will likely fall late.
3. Mr. Hot Stuff: 30/1 odds on this horse for a reason. Has shown the ability to close on artificial turf, but so far not on dirt.
4. Advice: Patient horse. Snuck into the derby with a win at Lexington, but many experts believe he doesn’t deserve to be here.
5. Hold Me Back: Has not been competitive on dirt tracks. Was beaten in the Bluegrass Stakes as the favorite and only ran in two prep races this year.
6. Friesan Fire: Comes into the derby red-hot with 3 wins in a row. Great lineage (AP Indy – Seattle Slew). Seven week layoff has some concerned about his readiness.
7. Papa Clem: Won the Arkansas Derby. Will need to get out front and finish strong, something he hasn’t done very well. 1 1/4 miles may be just beyond his reach.
8. Mine That Bird: Lowest rated horse in the field by any standards. Stay away.
9. Join in the Dance: Quick out of the gates. Will help set the pace early, but really no chance to show.
10. Regal Ransom: Dubai entry that had to travel 5,000 miles and has had a five week layoff. Gets out very fast and fades early.
11. Chocolate Candy: Decent history, but has raced against inferior horses. Good stalker, which has been conducive to success in the Kentucky Derby, but has not raced on a dirt surface. Middle of the pack finish in my opinion.
12. General Quarters: Won the Bluegrass Stakes, but has not won a major stakes. His performance has declined through his last three races.
13. I Want Revenge: The Favorite. Probably the best horse in the field, but anything can happen. Should be the prohibitive win bet and may drop near even money by race time.
14. Atomic Rain: Snuck into the race due to the defection of Square Eddie. Lowest graded career earnings of any horse to enter the Kentucky Derby in years ($77,500).
15. Dunkirk: Never raced as a 2 year old. Is a deep closer and should finish very strong. One of the top 3 horses in the race.
16. Pioneer of the Nile: Has won four in a row and is a model runner, but has never won on dirt. Hasn’t shown any ability to run anything down. 1 1/4 is probably too much distance.
17. Summer Bird: Never ran as a 2 year old. Not much experience, but looks to be a good closer, though a mediocre starter.
18. Nowhere to Hide: Hasn’t won as a 3 year old. Finished 4th at Illinois. $55,000 in earnings this year. Yikes.
19. Desert Party: The other Dubai entry. Strong horse, but it is probably too hard to overcome the disadvantages of the trip just to get here.
20. Flying Private: D. Wayne Lucas entry. Finished 5th in his final prep race. Fair longshot at 40/1.
2009 Kentucky Derby Predictions:
1st – Dunkirk
2nd – I Want Revenge
3rd – Friesan Fire
4th – Pioneer of the Nile
Long shot:Â Summer Bird 50/1
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If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
- Beginner’s Guide to Betting the Kentucky Derby
- 2009 Kentucky Derby is Wide Open
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Props
- Odds to Win the 2009 Kentucky Derby
13 Responses to “2009 Kentucky Derby Predictions”
Got something to say?
Chocolate Candy a SPRINTER?
There are reasonable arguements for putting this horse mid-pack, but as soon as you used “sprinter” it was obvious no homework was done on this horse.
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Good catch, Debra. That should read “Stalker” and it is my mistake. I will get it changed ASAP!
Steve
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great job on the write-ups Steve , but i’m going to vehemently disagree that #13 or any other horse will be near even money ! Big Brown went off at 5/2 last year and that was about as prohibitive a favorite as you’ll see in the derby. I’m guessing the favorite is going to be close to 5-1 , i also think there will only be 3 or 4 horses with single digit odds. If anybody can catch the super they’ll be looking at 150k or better. .. murdoch
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Steve Janus Reply:
May 1st, 2009 at 6:33 am
Murdoch-
I hope you are right, I’ve just been hearing a lot of hype around I Want Revenge, more so that the other favorites, but you are probably correct. Are you saying I should bite the bullet and bet the Superfecta All-All-All-All?
Steve
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MurdochSez Reply:
May 1st, 2009 at 7:24 am
yeah i agree that i want revenge is likely the fav , i just dont see it being less than 9/2 or so.
NO ALLS PLEASE …. LEAVE THE STUPID WAGERING TO ME !
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Not a big Pioneer of the Nile fan but he’s bred to run a distance. His daddy Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes, Wood Memorial & Florida Derby respectfully. Star of Goshen’s sire is Lord at War & her dam was sired by Key to the Kingdom, a colt bred like Triple Crown winner Secretariat (Bold Ruler/Princequillo combination) who was a half-brother to champions Key to the Mint (champion 3-year-old colt) and Fort Marcy (co-Horse of the Year)—neither of which had any problem negotiating 10 furlongs or further. Key to the Kingdom’s best runner as a sire was the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Great Communicator, who won a running of the 1 3/4-mile San Juan Capistrano (G1) to boot. So I feel your analysis of Pioneer is completely wrong. He’s a solid contender but the synthetic to dirt has me ?????????????
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My long shot is Musket Man. I know there is a big question about the distance, but you cannot deny his heart. I think he will give his all to run down any horse. At least I know or think lol, Musket will leave everythng he’s got on the track. Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem and Pioneer of The Nile Exacta Box. I thnk Pioneer Of The Nile will win, but Im going big or going home. Betting Musket Man WP for a long shot bet.
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I don’t trust my own handicapping, so I would probably just go with the consensus pick of other handicappers. There is an article at Case the Race that lists the picks of 20 Handicappers with their choices for win and best bet. Maybe I’ll pin all my hopes on an exacta based on that and go with Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. Here is a link to the article.http://www.casetherace.com/articles/129.html
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After watching Dunkirk in the Florida Derby where he tied the track record only to lose to Quality Road by a mere 1 3/4 lengths, well I can only say where was the rest of the field? They were aired! Dunkirk made a massive move that has a tendency to win the Derby. Hell that was only his 3rd race & I believe that put a whole lot of bottom in him. Watch the race on youtube, Dunkirk ended up 5 wide at the head of the stretch while Quality Road sat in the catbird seat the entire race. With Quality Road out Dunkirk looks like the play to me. Go ahead watch that Florida Derby move, it was MASSIVE, then look where the rest of the field was at the finish.
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Nice call with Mine That Bird. You’re great at your job. I hope you get fired.
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Steven Janus!
EAT YOUR WORDS BABY!
8. Mine That Bird: Lowest rated horse in the field by any standards. Stay away.
Ha Ha Ha
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Well, no point in considering utilizing your betting service unless you’re better at handicapping baseball and football than you are horse racing. “Stay away” hahahaha
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