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2009 MLB Playoff Predictions: Angels & Yankees

Written October 15, 2009 by Freddy Wills

One of the best MLB handicappers that we have had on our site all season long is Freddy Wills. He continues to beat up the books with his baseball picks this post-season so if you need some help breaking apart the MLB lines, turn to someone like him that you can trust. If you are going to be doing any baseball betting this post-season, take a look at the 10% UNLIMITED signup bonus & dime lines being offered by Bodog to our readers.

Both Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter are their respective teams most valuable player’s in my view. Abreu is a big under the radar type guy and is an ex-Yankee. Might he get his retaliation in this matchup as the Yankees resolved not to re-sign him at the close of his contract. Abreu was the catalyst for any come from behind win for the Angels with his skills to get on base. He was 5-9 with 4 runs, 4 walks, and an RBI in the ALDS. I don’t suppose Jeter needs any introduction, but he was 4-10 with 4 runs, 3 walks, and 3 RBI’s against the Twins. Both players I would not mind putting my sports betting advice behind with my sports picks.

The MLB odds on the series between the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees show the Yankees as -167 chalk to advance to the World Series.

Pitching

New York has the best overall starter in CC Sabathia, who was 12-2 since the All-Star break. After that the Yankees give the ball to A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettite, and Joba or Chad Gaudin who was very sound down the stretch. It’s been said that New York might go to a three man rotation with Sabathia starting game 4 and game 7. Pitching on short rest would be nothing new for Sabathia as he did so on a regular basis down the stretch for the Brewers a year ago in supreme fashion. However, against the Angels this year Sabathia was 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA as the Angels hit southpaws very well you have to ask that if he starts three games the Angels should be able to pick up at least one win.

For the Angels it starts with John Lackey and then Jered Weaver then comes Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. The keys are with Weaver who has struggled on the road before, but has been dominant at home. Can he pitch well on the road, that will be the question. Also Kazmir has a career 2.67 ERA and they may be looking for him to shut down the left handed power bats in the Yankees line up. Starting pitching definitely goes to the Angels in this series for me.

Bullpen edge to the Yankees. Seems very obvious with the best closer in league history and playoff history in the closer role for New York in Mariano Rivera. Yankees were placed 14th in MLB in bullpen ERA while the Angels rated 23rd. It seems as though the Yankees will continue to use Joba out of the pen giving them a very solid top 3 relievers in Joba, Hughes, and Rivera to close out games. However, the Angels bullpen led round one in bullpen ERA as Fuentes saved two games against the Red Sox and they jointly had 1.42 ERA giving up a total of just six base runners on 4 hits and 2 walks. The Yankees come in second with a 1.80 ERA, but batters are hitting .341 and I think the Angels who have good bats could do some damage.

Edge: Angels

Hitting

From top to bottom the Angels have dangerous batters in terms of getting on base. They may not be a power threat with home runs compared to the Yankees who have hit 71 more home runs than the Angels, but the Angels led the league in hitting with a .285 average.

Yankees actually check in second and nine points in front of the next team in the majors on the list with a .283 average just two points behind the Angels. As I remarked the Yankees hit 71 more home runs and many could say it’s because of their ball park, but they have various power hitters such as Nick Swisher who hit more home runs as a visitor opposed to at home. Yankees have the leagues highest OPS at .839 as they walked 663 times this year compared to the Angels 547.

Clearly we are considering some excellent batters in this series and it should be a lot of fun. However, the edge will have to go to the Yankees. They have arguably the best playoff and clutch hitter of all time in Derek Jeter and their power to hit a home run and change the game is throughout their batting order.

Edge: Yankees

Intangibles:

Most teams might be a little overtaken by playing at Yankee stadium in the playoffs. However, the Angels are not. They were not phased in Boston when they came from two runs behind to win versus one of MLB’s best closers Johnathan Paplebon.

Really the Angels are the only team in the American League with a winning record over the past nine seasons against the Yankees and the Angels were responsible for eliminating the Yankees in the 2005 post season.

While the Angels have the emotion and heart and the will to win this one as they are playing for their SP Nick Adenhart who died earlier this season they do not have the advantage with all of the stars the Yankees have including the leadership between Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Yankees have to be excited in the fact that Alex Rodriguez eventually got over his post season slumps as he hit .455 with six RBI’s in the first round.

The point is he is no longer the savior in the lineup with Texeira backing him up. Teixera like Abreu will be facing his past team and it should make the series that much more interesting.

Edge: Yankees

Pick: Yankees in 7 games - I think it’s time for the Yankees to get back to the World Series. It will be an entertaining series when they square off against their previous coach Joe Torre if the Dodgers also come through. This series will be one of the better ones of all time. I think the Angels are still flying in under the radar and they can surely steal a game or two in New York which will make this series all that much more intriguing. If you are one to play series prices the value is certainly on the Angels side. Particularly with the success the Angels have had against Sabathia and in New York.

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