2009 NCAA Tournament Upset Predictions

Written March 16, 2009 by Jack Jones

ncaa-tournament-upset-predictions-031609 The first round of the 2009 men’s NCAA basketball tournament tips off this Thursday. Every year we look for possible first round upsets in each region. Remember to take these with a grain of salt as they are just the most likely upsets we see and we’d be crazy to think that all of them will hit in the first round. Historically there are between 7-9 upsets in the first round and hopefully we’ll hit a few of this year’s.

Midwest Region - The most likely possible upset I see here is number 10 seeded USC over the number 7 seed Boston College. Sure BC played in a better conference throughout the year, but USC really came into their own in the PAC-10 tournament and I see them taking that momentum into the tournament. I also like Arizona (12 seed) as a possible upset over Utah (5 seed). I know the Utes played really well in their conference tournament as well, but I just don’t think they match up with Arizona very well. The Wildcats had a rough go in their conference this year, but they have three dynamic scorers in Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise that I feel can carry them over Utah in the first round. The odds for the Arizona/Utah game have been set at a Pick ‘Em.

West Region - This region seems the least likely for any first round upsets, though I did like the way the Mississippi State played in the SEC Tournament, eventually beating Tennessee in a great game. Washington had a tremendous regular season in the PAC-10, but stumbled in the tournament. While not my favorite upset pick of the first round, I do think that Mississippi State (13 seed) is the most likely candidate for an upset over Washington (4 seed).

East Region - While you shouldn’t be able to call a 9 seed beating an 8 seed an upset (more 9 seeds have won in the first round than 8 seeds since the expansion of the tournament in 1985), I like Tennessee to knock off Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a nice season, but Tennessee’s overall talent on the court is head-and-shoulders better than Oklahoma State’s. For another possible upset in the East I look to 12th seeded Wisconsin over 5th seeded Florida State. The Seminoles have one of the best shooting guards in the nation in Toney Douglas, and they did just make it to the ACC Championship game, but I like how the Wisconsin defense matches up with them and see this as a game the Badgers could certainly take.

South Region - I like the 9 over the 8 in the South as well with Butler over LSU. LSU lost in the regular season to Texas A&M, Utah, and Xavier, all teams that I think play similar to the style of Butler. They also tanked at the end of the season losing their last two regular season games, then losing to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament. Bulter is probably on a lot of people’s radars this tournament, but they are a solid upset pick in the first round. Michigan as a 10 seed could be very dangerous against the 7 seeded Clemson Tigers. Michigan has a been a team that’s been tough to figure out. They did not have a great season in the Big 10, just good enough to get them into the tournament, really. But wins over teams like UCLA, Duke, and Purdue show me that they can play with, and beat, some of the best teams in the nation.

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