First Look at 2009 NFL Futures

Written March 5, 2009 by Jack Jones

Matt Cassel Traded to Kansas City Frank Doyle of Sports Interaction has been fascinated by the moves teams are making in the free agent market and what kind of effects these transactions will have on the NFL futures markets. The free agency season is only one week in but it’s already shaping up to be more exciting than a lackluster 2008 offseason. Frank takes a look at how some of the moves should influence where bettors place their futures bets on which teams will make the Super Bowl in 2010.

The first big deal is Matt Cassel going from the New England Patriots to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were terrible last year when they had to deal with injuries at quarterback, but Tyler Thigpen had been playing well over the last few weeks of the season. The surprising thing is that over at Sports Interaction Frank is reporting that there has been little to no action on Kansas City since the move. The Chiefs are still at +6000 for the Super Bowl. Cassel’s former team though, the Patriots, are drawing a lot of action and are now coming in at +700.

With the sharp bettors on the Patriots that means they probably have faith that Tom Brady is going to make a full recovery. That’s the smart assumption because why else would the team go out of their way to trade Cassel if they were unsure of Brady’s status? Personally though, I would be a little timid to back a player coming off a major leg injury, especially when he plays such a huge role in the offense like Brady does. I’m going to have to watch the first few games he plays to see how he does.

Besides, it’s never as fun to back the favorite as it is to find next season’s Arizona Cardinals. If you find a team that is coming from the bottom of the league to challenge then you can get a pretty hefty pay day, and you can also hedge your bet come playoff time.

Which teams have a chance to come out of nowhere this year? You have to start by looking at both the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans who come in at +2000 and +4000. Both of those teams showed potential last year and are still under the radar. The Minnesota Vikings making the move for Sage Rosenfels gives them yet another option at quarterback, but is he a long term answer? With Adrian Peterson in the backfield though they only need someone to guide the team, not take it over.

Sure those three teams seem to have solid chances, but Kansas City is the team that Frank thinks shows value at +6000. They are rock solid at quarterback and will be running some wildcat formations with Thigpen. Tony Gonzalez is still a threat at the tight end spot and they have a solid wideout in Dwayne Bowe. If they can get a solid draft choice with their third overall pick, they could come out of nowhere like the Miami Dolphins did last year.

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2 Comments

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2 Responses to “First Look at 2009 NFL Futures”

eyePod on March 5th, 2009 9:16 am

It’s Dwayne Bowe. Not Derrick.

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Jack Jones on March 5th, 2009 9:57 am

Good catch. I’m a Chiefs fan and I didn’t even spot that when reading through Frank’s piece.

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