2010 Home Run Derby Odds

Written by Jack Jones

Below I’ll break down each participant while giving a little helpful information on each slugger to help you get a feel for which player has the best chance to outlast the competition. I also give my prediction on who will win it all to help you beat the MLB odds.

Derby Contenders:

David Ortiz, Red Sox (+300) – After a slow start this season, Ortiz has come on strong over the last few months and has 18 home runs for the season. He has hit a homer once every 14.4 at-bats this year with an average bomb of 403 feet. He’s hitting one home run every 17.6 AB’s in Angel Stadium in his career. Has participated in three previous derby’s, falling short in all three.

Vernon Wells, Blue Jays (+650) – Has 19 home runs in 320 at-bats this season for an average of one every 16.8 AB’s. He has re-gained his power stroke this season, and his average home run has traveled 408 feet. But he only has 3 home runs in 149 career at-bats at Angel Stadium, or one every 49.7 AB’s.

Corey Hart, Brewers (+500) – Perhaps the biggest surprise of them all, Hart has smacked 20 homers in 296 at-bats for one every 14.8. He is only averaging 396 feet per home run and has gone homerless in 14 career at-bats at Angel Stadium.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals (+300) – The hottest slugger entering the derby, Holliday has hit 5 home runs over his last 6 games. He only has 16 for the season and one every 21.3 at-bats, but when he decides he wants to swing for the fences his shots usually go a long ways. His average homer has traveled 412.3 feet.

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (+250) - His power stroke has been on display all season, making him the pre-derby favorite. Cabrera has 22 home runs in 2010 and has hit one every 14.6 AB’s. He is averaging 400 feet per homer, and has hit with a lot of power in Angel Stadiumas well. In 69 at-bats there, he has 5 homers or one every 13.8 at-bats.

Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (+800) – Though Ramirez has just 13 home runs this season and one every 25.1 at-bats, he has showed power to all fields. He has hit one home run to right, and then three each to right-center, center, left-center and left. But the home run derby is all about pull power, and it will be tough for Ramirez to keep up with his competition because of it.

Chris Young, Diamondbacks (+1200) – Young is certainly a sleeper in this field, because he is a pull hitter who should thrive in this competition. He has hit 15 home runs this season, with 13 of them going to left or left-center. He is hitting one every 21.3 at-bats while averaging 403 feet per long ball.

Nick Swisher, Yankees (+500) – The only switch-hitter in this field, Swisher will be hitting from the left side. He has hist 15 home runs this season, and most have come from the left side where he is averaging one tater every 16.7 at-bats. Concerning is the fact that Swisher has just three homers in 132 career at-bats at Angel Stadium, or one every 44 AB’s.

2010 Home Run Derby Winner: Matt Holliday (+300) - I’ll take the hottest hitter in the field in Holliday, who has hit 5 home runs in his last 6 games. Holliday can do it all, but when he decides to take a big cut at it he doesn’t mess around. That’s indicated by the fact that Holliday’s average home run is 412.3 feet, which is a better average than any other contender in the field. He is in some kind of groove right now and will come into this competition with a lot of confidence. If you want to go for more value, then Chris Young (+1200) might be worth a shot with his ability to pull the ball with power.

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