49ers at Colts Line

Written by Rock Henderson

San Francisco didn’t exactly come off their bye week in mid season form as they faced a large first half deficit at Houston. They eventually fell to the Texans 24-21, but might have found themselves a quarterback for the remainder of the season as Alex Smith tossed three second half touchdown passes to TE Vernon Davis that almost completed an amazing comeback. Head coach Mike Singletary has named Smith the starter for their game at Indianapolis. The Colts keep on doing their thing and have clearly sent a message to the rest of the AFC that the road to the Super Bowl will go through Indy. Indianapolis is listed as a 12 point favorite with the total set at 45 according to our current NFL odds.

Statistically, the 49ers rank near the bottom of almost every offensive category. RB Frank Gore’s first game back from injury was dismal and while rookie WR Michael Crabtree showed flashes of what is to come in his debut, but 56 yards receiving isn’t going to win you any awards anytime soon. Gore has to return to 2008 form if the 9ers want to make a run at winning the NFC West. Alex Smith has been considered a bust after being selected first overall in the draft, but he took advantage of an opportunity last week and has the keys to the car now even though the car hasn’t run smoothly the past couple weeks. TE Vernon Davis is probably the happiest 49er to see Smith take over as the starter. He doubled his touchdown output for 2009 in one game and seems to be Smith’s favorite target downfield. Defensively, San Fran has been fairly sound for most of the year. They rank 15th in points allowed and are sixth against the run as they allowed under 90 yards per game rushing. LB Patrick Willis is playing at an All-Pro level and has collected 59 tackles, two sacks, two interceptions and two fumble recoveries through six games.

Indianapolis faces no such issues when it comes to moving the ball at will. Peyton Manning is the midseason MVP and there is really no argument that can be made against it. He has thrown for a league high 1880 yards and 15 touchdowns in 215 pass attempts and has only thrown four interceptions. Manning has benefited from the development of his young wide receivers as Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne can always be counted on. WR Austin Collie has made the biggest impact, catching 24 balls and four touchdowns. Collie has filled in nicely for the injured Anthony Gonzalez. The running game is mainly used to keep opposing defenses off balance, but both Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown have ran the ball effectively. The Colt defense thrives on pressuring the quarterback with their two top notch DE’s Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis as the two have combined for 11 sacks.

Indy is that good to deserve to be favored by almost two touchdowns against a 3-3 team. But this line is inflated in my opinion. The Colts have easily covered each game since the opening week against the Jags and the 49ers are a desperate team here. Alex Smith should give the offense a new outlook and they are capable of posing the ball to keep Peyton and the Colts off the field. Play: 49ers +12

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