Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic: Game 5 Preview & Betting Odds

Written April 28, 2009 by Steve Janus

76ers-magic-playoff-game-5-preview-042809 Not many people gave the Philadelphia 76ers a fighting chance against the Orlando Magic in this playoff series, but Philly has managed to be competitive, jumping out to a 2-1 series lead, and very nearly pushing it to 3-1, coming up just short in a 81-84 loss to the Magic that has the series evened at 2 wins a piece heading back to Orlando for Game 5. According to the NBA odds for tonight’s game, the Magic are favored by 8.5 points over the 76ers and the total is set at 188 points.

By now I’m sure you’ve heard the term “pivotal game”, but nowhere is that term more appropriate than in Game 5s in the NBA playoffs. Historically, the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the series 83% of the time. I would say that is a statistically significant number. Luckily for the Magic, they get to play this game at home. Orlando was nearly unbeatable on their home court during the regular season, winning 32 of their 41 regular season home games, even though they were foiled at home in the first game of this series 98-100.

This has been a very close series overall. There have been times that one team has pulled away during the game, but they have almost always come down to the final quarter with both teams having a chance to ultimately win the game. Orlando has averaged 93 points in this series, while the 76ers have averaged 91. Both teams have shot well from the floor, with Orlando coming in at 45% and the 76ers at 47%, but the real difference in the series so far has been three-point shooting. The 76ers have been killing it from beyond the arc, hitting over 43% of their long distance attempts, while Orlando, who were 6th in the NBA in overall shooting percentage, are shooting just under 31% in this series. What’s interesting about that stat is that the 76ers came into the playoffs ranked dead-last in the NBA in 3-points shooting, averaging just 31.8% during the regular season.

Breaking these teams down based on their regular season performance may not be the most accurate tool to assess tonight’s game, but it’s the best indicator we really have to help us predict tonight’s game. In most of the major categories, the Orlando Magic have an edge. They score more points, hold their opponents to less points, rebound more, and give away less turnovers. With that being said, it’s obvious that the 76ers did not come into this series believing they didn’t have a chance against Orlando. Philly has managed to cover in all four games in this series, and while this team isn’t going down without a fight, I simply have to think that the Magic will be ultra-motivated for this game. No play for me, but if I were forced to make a play, I would learn toward Orlando covering the points in Game 5.

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