2009 Aaron’s 499 Predictions
Written by Jason Lowry
This week NASCAR fans gear up for the 2009 running of the Aaron’s 499 held at Talladega Superspeedway. The Aaron’s 499 is one of four races during the season that are ran with restrictor plates, with the others being the Amp Energy 500, the Coke Zero 400, and the Daytona 500. It use to be that Chevrolets dominated restrictor races, including a stretch where they won 17 of 18 races, but that trend is quickly going away, as a Chevy has not won a restrictor race in the last 5 races. I don’t think that you can just forget about they Chevy cars this weekend, but I do think its anyones race to win, something you wouldn’t normally say about a plate race. Kyle Busch will look to defend his title this week at the Aaron’s 499, while Tony Stewart will try and make it two straight at Talladega dating back to his fall win here last season. With the race scheduled to get underway Sunday afternoon, here are my 3 drivers I think have the best shot at winning this weekend.
Kyle Busch +500 odds to win at Sportsbook.com: We are about a quarter through the 2009 season, and Busch has not been anywhere near as dominant as he was in 2008. Busch does have 2 wins back at the Shelby 427 and the Food City 500, but Busch has not finished inside the top 15 in three straight races. Busch is currently 7th in the point standings, and you have to wonder if this guy is going to turn it on like he did a year ago. The main reason I have Busch up here is he is the defending champion, and one of the best drivers of today, but besides his win here a year ago he has really struggled at Talladega. I think it will be hit or miss for Busch this weekend, so either he wins the race or he is once again outside the top 10. I am leaning more towards the checkered flag finish in this one.
Jeff Gordon +800 odds to win at Sportsbook.com: If a Chevy is going to get back to the winner circle at Talladega, I like Gordon to be the one to get the job done. Gordon has 5 wins at Talladega throughout his brilliant career and a ton of great finishes. Besides that Gordon has seemed to regain some of the magic of the past, as he currently sits in first place in the point standings. I was a little surprised that Gordon struggled last week at the Subway Fresh Fit 500 after starting in the 4th position, but it was only the 2nd race this season he failed to finish in the top 6. Look for Gordon to be right in the thick of things when the final laps are going down, and if Busch slips up I think its Gordon’s race to win.
Tony Stewart +1000 odds to win at Sportsbook.com: I don’t think enough can be said about the season Stewart is having after leaving Gibbs Racing and starting up his own team. Stewart who now drives a Chevy comes into Talladega 2nd in the point standings. Though Stewart has not won a race this season, he has six top 10 finishes, including a streak of 3 straight races where he has finished 4th or better. Another reason to like Stewart is the fact that he raced pretty well at Daytona earlier this season, and you have to think some of that will translate over to the race this weekend. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Stewart win the race this weekend, and with the odds he is getting he is a great value if you are looking at placing a bet on the race this weekend.
For those of you looking for the odds of the rest of the field, head over to Sportsbook.com.
Archived Predictions:
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