Air Force at Navy Line
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Saturday the Navy Midshipmen will host the Air Force Falcons in what figures to be an entertaining matchup between two of the elite service academies. Air Force snapped a seven game losing streak to Navy with a 14-6 win at home. The Midshipmen opened up with two easy wins against Delaware and Western Kentucky before nearly upsetting South Carolina on the road. Navy had a 21-17 lead going into the fourth quarter, but would lose the game 21-24. Air Force is also 2-1 after three games. The Falcons beat South Dakota and Tennessee State without a problem, but were crushed by TCU 19-35 at home.
Taking a look at the week 5 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have Navy favored by 3.5-points over Air Force with the total set at 53.5 points.
Air Force:
The Falcons bring in the No. 1 ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 411.7 yards per game on the ground. Their rushing numbers are a bit inflated from their two easy wins over South Dakota and Tennessee State, as they had just 249 yards against TCU.
Asher Clark leads the ground attack with 291 yards on just 33 carries, giving him a ridiculous 8.8 yards per carry. Mike Dewitt and quarterback Tim Jefferson each have around 150 yards and two scores, while Anthony LaCoste has rushed six times for 103 yards.
As good as the Falcons have been on the offensive side of the ball, they have had a terrible time trying to stop the opposing team on defense. Air Force has especially struggled against the run, allowing 192 yards a game. That run defense will be put to the test against Navy, who is just as good if not better running the ball.
Navy:
The Midshipmen are 4th in the nation with a 358.3 rushing average after three games. I really believe Navy showed just how good they are with their near win over South Carolina. They played that game without three of their starting linebackers, which is a big reason why the Gamecocks were able to rush for 254 yards. Both Jarrod Shannon and Mason Graham are listed as questionable to return against Army, while Matt Warrick is expected to return to the starting lineup.
Some people wondered if Navy would take a step back after losing starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who threw for 13 touchdowns and rushed for 967 yards and 14 scores. So far they haven’t missed a beat. Kriss Proctor has stepped in an is leading the team with 267 rushing yards and four scores. He has struggled throwing the ball, but they throw so rarely it doesn’t really have a big effect on the game.
The Midshipmen have also got some big time play out of running backs Alexander Teich, John Howell, and Gee Gee Greene. Teich is the primary carrier outside of Proctor, and has rushed for 260 yards and a touchdown on 44 attempts. Howell has got just nine carries, but is third on the team with 158 yards and second to Dobbs with three touchdowns. Greene hasn’t found the endzone, but does have 14 carries for 147 yards.
Just like Air Force, Navy isn’t all that impressive on the defensive side of the ball. They allowed South Carolina to pile on 458 yards of total offense. They too struggle against the run, allowing 199 yards a game. It will be a big boost to the defense if Shannon and Graham can return. Even with the loss a year ago, Navy has won 14 of the last 18 meetings and hasn’t lost at home since 1997.
Betting Trends:
Air Force is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Navy is 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Be sure to check out what Steve Janus has picked to win in week 5 of college football. The expert college football handicapper cashed in a 6-1 premium card in week 4!
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