Air Force vs Utah Point Spread

Written October 23, 2009 by Hector Garza

The Mountain West Conference has another matchup this week between Air Force and #19 Utah. Utah has the advantage of playing at home in Salt Lake City, where one more victory will make the team bowl eligible in a tough conference featuring #16 BYU and #10 TCU. The game will start at 4:00 p.m. EDT and, taking a look at the latest college football spreads, the Utes are favored by 10 with the total set at 43.

The Utes are 6-1 this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Oregon in week 3. QB Terrance Cain had a good game last week against UNLV, throwing for 2 td’s and rushing for another in a 35-15 win. He’s currently averaging 222.7 ypg throwing the ball with 10 td’s and 5 ints. RB Eddie Wide also chipped in 111 yards on the ground and helps make the running game a threat. An interesting area will be turnovers. Last week Utah fumbled 5 times, losing two of them, and Air Force is currently leading the nation in turnover margin at +17.

Defensively Robert Johnson is the biggest playmaker with 5 interceptions, two fumble recoveries and 26 tackles (5th on the team). He leads a secondary that is 8th in the nation in pass defense efficiency and allows less than 180 ypg in passing. The question for this unit will be how they can hold up against the run happy triple option attack of Air Force. Last year they were successful in holding them to 53 yards rushing in a 30-23 victory, but are without senior SS Joe Dale (knee) and DT Lei Talamaivao (broken fibula). Get serious about betting NCAA football with a $500 match bonus from BetUS.

Air Force is looking to salvage their conference records (3-1) despite a 4-3 overall record. One problem they’ve faced is getting in the end zone. Against 6 FBS opponents, they’ve scored 7 td’s, making it tough to win games. They’ve had success running the football, averaging 279.3 rushing ypg which is good for 4th in the nation. That equates to multiple RB’s and QB’s that contribute, but makes the team one sided in their attack. The two starting QB’s have thrown a total of 35 completions for 452 yards in 7 games this year. In last week’s 10-0 win against Wyoming, the squad completed one pass for 2 yards.

Saving the best for last, the counter to a weak offense is a strong defense, and that’s what Air Force seems to have in stock. The Falcons are in the top 10 in multiple defensive categories, including 7th in points scored (11.9 ppg), 4th in pass defense (139.1 ypg) and 1st in turnover margin. They’ve been able to tally 10 int and 11 fumble recoveries, and limited Wyoming last week to 76 yards in the air and 98 on the ground.

This game will go down to the wire, as the Falcons have yet to give up more than 20 points in a game. The question will be whether Utah can shut down the running game and limit their turnovers. Utah likes to establish the run, and Air Force has been stingy giving up an average of 127.6 ypg. Air Force has lost 5 of the last 6 to the Utes but leads the overall series 14-11. If they can put up 10 points, look for them to beat the spread on the road.

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