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Akron at Miami (OH) Line

This Thursday the Miami (OH) RedHawks will host the Akron Zips in a MAC matchup on ESPNU. The RedHawks come in off an impressive 41-13 win over Buffalo, improving their overall record to 3-5 and 2-2 inside the conference. The Zips come in off an emotional lost to Central Michigan. Akron trailed 20-6 heading into the fourth quarter, but were a failed two-point conversion away from winning the game. The Zips scored a touchdown as time expired in regulation, but instead of forcing overtime they elected to try and win the game. The loss dropped Akron to 1-7 and 0-4 in conference play.

Taking a look at the week 10 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Miami favored by 14.5-points over Akron with the total set at 47.5 points.

Akron Zips:

Things have simply not went the Zips way in 2011, and you have to wonder how this team is going to respond from that heartbreaking loss to Central Michigan at home. As bad as their record is they have shown a lot of fight against some of the better teams in the MAC. They played Eastern Michigan to an 8-point game on the road, loss by just 10 to Florida International, and kept respectable against Ohio.

The biggest problem for Akron has been getting a bad offense going early in the game. The Zips have scored just 23 points in the first half of their last four games combined.  They have the 108th ranked offense, averaging just 307.8 ypg.

Their best chance of moving the ball against Miami is with the running game. The Redhawks come in allowing just over 177 yards a game on the ground. If Ohio can’t run the football, this game could get ugly. Sophomore quarterback Clayton Moore had a nice game against Central Michigan, throwing for 228 yards and two touchdowns, but the RedHawks have the 18th best pass defense in the nation, giving up just 191 on average.

Miami RedHawks:

The RedHawks got off to a miserable 0-4 start, with the most disappointing being a 23-37 loss at home to Bowling Green. However, this team has got some nice momentum going and actually control their own destiny in the MAC East. It won’t be easy, as they would have to win at both Temple and Ohio, but it all starts with a strong performance against Akron this week. Miami didn’t exactly have their way against the Zips last season, winning by a final of 19-14.

Last week’s win over Buffalo really had to give this offense a lot of confidence going into this game. Miami features one of the worst rushing attacks in the nation, averaging just 67.5 ypg, but did manage to pile on 128 yards against the Bulls. They should be able to at least have some success against a Akron defense that comes in allowing 203 rushing yards per game.

Regardless if the running game is working or not, Miami should  be able to put together a lot of big plays in the passing game. Starting quarterback Zac Dysert has completed 62.5% of his passes for 2,149 yards with 14 touchdowns to eight interceptions. He had a field day against Buffalo, throwing for 313 yards and five touchdowns.

The big concern that I have with laying the points with Miami is this is a bit of a trap game with a huge road game at Temple looming next week.

Betting Trends:

Akron is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Miami is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater, but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.