Alabama at Florida Line


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The No. 12 Florida Gators will look to make a statement this Saturday when they host the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide.  Florida improved to 4-0 with a dominant 48-10 win at Kentucky, but are in for their biggest challenge yet. Alabama defeated Arkansas 38-14 at home last week, which was their second win against a Top 25 team in their first four games. One thing to keep in mind is the Gators opened up 4-0 last season, then went on the road and lost 31-6 to the Crimson Tide.

Taking a look at the week 5 college football lines, oddsmakers have Alabama favored by 3.5-points over Florida with the total set at 44.5 points.

Alabama:

There were some that thought Alabama was going to have a hard time against the Razorbacks, but instead the Crimson Tide sent a message to the rest of the SEC that they are for real.  Alabama can really put their stamp on the conference with a win at SEC this weekend.

Alabama has had a lot of success running the football behind junior Trent Richardson and sophomore Eddie Lacey. Richardson leads the way with 441 yards and eight touchdowns, while Lacey has rushed for 365 yards and four scores. Lacey is battling a toe injury, but is expected to play.  Richardson had 60 yards of Alabama’s 170 rushing yards against the Gators last season.

A  lot of people had their concerns about Alabama having to replace starting quarterback Greg McElroy, but A.J. McCarron is putting a lot of those worries to rest. McCarron struggled in the opener against Kent State, throwing two interceptions, but appears to be getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on. McCarron had his best game yet last week against Arkansas, completing 15 of 20 for 200 yards and two touchdowns.

The thing with Alabama is they don’t have to be all that great offensively to win games, as they feature one of the best defenses in the country. The Crimson Tide come in allowing just 45.8 yards per game on the ground and just 138.3 against the pass.  They held a very talented Arkansas offense to just 226 yards of total offense.

Florida:

The Gators  are out to prove that they are a much better team than the one that finished 8-5 a season ago, and will have their chance to do that and a lot more if they can upset Alabama this week. Florida comes in averaging 40.3 ppg and a big reason for that is their ability to move the football on the ground.

The Gators are averaging 259 rushing yards a game this season, and the main culprits for that are Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. Rainey has rushed for a team-best 411 yards to go along with two scores, while Demps has piled on 320 yards on just 34 attempts (9.4 avg.) and leads the team with four rushing touchdowns. These two are going to have to find a way to break through the Alabama defense and make some plays, or the Gators could really struggle to move the ball.

Senior quarterback John Brantley has completed 64% of his passes for 752 yards and four touchdowns. As good as the Gators have been on the ground, I believe that Brantley has to have his best game of the season for Florida to win this game.

So far the Gators defense has played better than anyone expected. Statistically there isn’t a whole lot that separates them from Alabama. They are giving up just 56.5 yards on the ground and only 175.3 through the air. However, Florida did allow Kentucky to rush for 145 yards last week.

Betting Trends:

Alabama is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite.

Florida is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Be sure to check out what Steve Janus has picked to win in week 5 of college football. The expert college football handicapper cashed in a 6-1 premium card in week 4!

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