Odds to Win the 2012 American League MVP Award


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Who will win the AL MVP in 2012? Last year, Justin Verlander became the first pitcher to win the award since Roger Clemens in 1986. Not to say that Verlander didn’t deserve the award, but I think voters were unfair to Blue Jays slugger, Jose Bautista. The guy had one of the most impressive offensive seasons in the last decade, but was overlooked because Toronto was never really in the playoff hunt. It really is hard for players who aren’t on great teams to win this award. For those of you interested in making a prop bet on who will win the American League MVP this season, here is a quick look at the three favorites, plus I’ll throw in my sleeper pick.

Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (+550) – Pujols won three MVP awards while with the St Louis Cardinals in the National League. He comes over to the Angels after helping the Cardinals win the World Series last year. The addition of Pujols and starter C.J. Wilson make Los Angeles the favorites to win the AL West. This guy can do it all offensively. He has that special ability to make everyone else around him that much better. If Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo can keep opposing pitchers from intentionally walking Pujols, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he could put up this season.

Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox (+750) – Gonzalez was one of the favorites to win the award in 2011, after he made the switch from the National League to the American League. What really made Gonzalez a popular pick was the fact that he was leaving a pitcher-friendly park in San Diego for Fenway. For whatever reason, Gonzalez managed to hit just 27 home runs after hitting at least 30 in each of the previous four seasons. However, he finished with a career best .338 batting average to go along with a 117 RBI, 203 hits, and 108 runs scored. I have a hard time believing Gonzalez won’t see a huge jump in home runs this year. If he puts up anywhere close to his numbers from last year with 35-40 home runs, he deserves to win the MVP. The only thing you have to worry about with Gonzalez, is whether or not the Red Sox will be able to get back in the playoffs.

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (+750) – There’s no denying Cabrera is one of the games most complete hitters. In 2011, Cabrera won the AL batting title with an impressive .344 average. He also hit 30 homers with 105 RBI and 111 runs scored. He also walked 108 times, 19 more than his previous career-high. The Tigers went out and signed Prince Fielder, which will keep teams from pitching around Cabrera. I think Fielder makes that Tigers a much better team, but at the same time, he could end up stealing MVP votes away from Cabrera.

Sleeper Pick: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays (+1500) – If you are looking for a little more return on your investment, I think Longoria is someone you need to consider. The Rays have the starting rotation to win the AL East, but in order for that to happen they need a huge season out of their star third baseman. Longoria will have to hit for a better average than his .244 mark from a season ago, but that shouldn’t be a problem. He hit .294 over 151 games in 2010. Longoria has the potential to hit 40 homers with a 120 RBI. One thing I really like about Longoria is the fact that he doesn’t have as strong of a supporting cast. Not to say the Rays don’t have some good players, but compared to the Yankees and Red Sox they are short-handed offensively. If Tampa Bay is able to win the division, Longoria should benefit from a lot of media attention.

Complete Odds to Win 2012 AL MVP

Albert Pujols +550
Adrian Gonzalez +750
Miguel Cabrera +750
Jose Bautista +1200
Prince Fielder +1200
Robinson Cano +1200
Evan Longoria +1500
Jacoby Ellsbury +1800
Mark Teixeira +1800
Joe Mauer +2000
Josh Hamilton +2000
Dustin Pedroia +2200
Alex Rodriguez +2500
Justin Verlander +2500
Adrian Beltre +2800
Ian Kinsler +2800
Carl Crawford +3500
Jered Weaver +3500
Justin Morneau +3500
C.C. Sabathia +4000
David Price +4000
Feliz Hernandez +4000
Michael Young +4000
Adam Lind +5000
C.J. Wilson +5000
Curtis Granderson +5000
Derek Jeter +5000
Eric Hosmer +5000
Ichiro Suzuki +5000
Mark Reynolds +5000
Matt Wieters +5000
Yoenis Cespedes +5000
Jon Lester +7500
Paul Konerko +7500
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Comments

2 Responses to “Odds to Win the 2012 American League MVP Award”

  1. mike on September 30th, 2011 9:01 PM

    how could you even not even think of putting joes bautista on this list. cabrera has not even hit 40 home runs. if toronto built a team like new york or boston they would be in the play offs every year

  2. Jack Jones on September 30th, 2011 11:36 PM

    @Mike

    Please keep in mind that these predictions are based on the odds given by the sportsbook. They also didn’t include Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury, both of which have had MVP-caliber seasons.

    There’s no denying that Jose Bautista is in that category as well, but the Jays will need to find their way into the pennant race soon or he’s likely to continue to be ignored.

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