Arizona at Toledo Odds
Written by Matthew Martz - Google +
The Arizona Wildcats open their season Saturday, September 4th at 3:30 PM EST against the non-conference Toledo Rockets at the Glass Bowl in Toledo. This match up is sure to be one of the more interesting ones during Week 1 of the season, and odds show Arizona –15 ½ over Toledo with a total set of 60.5 points.
The Wildcats were destroyed by the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a 33-0 embarrassment at the Holiday Bowl to end their 2009 campaign. It was the first shutout in 32 years of Holiday bowl play.
That was an aberration, because for the season the Wildcats were much better, playing to an 8-5 record. While many look to that bowl game as a predictor of 2010 struggles, the pieces are in place to make that a dirty memory.
The offensive nucleus does look to be more consistent this season, led by Junior QB Nick Foles. He passed for just under 2500 yards last season with 19 TDs. RB Nic Grigsby had a shortened season due to injury but still managed nearly 600 yards and five TDs. Junior WR Juron Criner is another receiving option. He caught 45 passes and led the team with 582 yards and nine touchdowns.
The offensive line is solid if unspectacular, led by center Colin Baxter.
The defense had to replace seven starters this season, after finishing 2nd in the conference in total defense in 2009. The only anchor is junior CB Trevin Wade who had five interceptions and 71 tackles. With so many questions on defense, the youngsters will decide the fate of the Wildcats. If they can learn quickly, the defense can repeat last season’s showing. If they fail to perform expect a lot of scoring. As that pressure builds, the offense may suffer.
In the meantime, the last five years have been a struggle for the Rockets, and Tim Beckman was brought in to right the ship. Toledo finished 5-7 in his first year, led by a strong offense, which averaged nearly 30 points per game and 438 yards of total offense. It was a mixed attack on the ground and in the air, and that balanced approach will be a key to improving in 2010.
Returning sophomore QB Austin Dantin was slow to start but looked strong in the final two games of last season, finishing with close to 1000 yards with four touchdowns. The receiving core is the team’s strength. The main RB DaJuane Collins graduated leaving Morgan Williams to fill the role. No slouch, he broke a school record in his freshman year with 330 rushing yards against Miami. Looking to put off field issues behind him, he is expected to deliver 1000 yards this season.
Sophomore WR Eric Page returns looks to be a star in the making after leading the team with 82 catches for 1159 yards and seven touchdowns.
Like Arizona, the defense is the Achilles to a potent offense. The Rockets have trouble defending against the pass or the run, giving up more than 37 points per game in 2009.
Top tackler Archie Donald returns to the middle after a season where he earned 3rd team conference honors with 116 tackles. With a win now attitude, JUCO transfers will be plugged into the line and expected to produce from day one.
The secondary returns three starters. Sophomore CB Daxter Swanson broke up seven passes last season, and will be the key ingredient this year.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Toledo +15 ½ – Every one is predicting a high scoring contest between these two teams. The question is who will come out on top? That depends on which defense crumbles first. Both are relying on youngsters to provide support, but the Rockets smartly are going to the better-seasoned JUCO approach. While the talent edge rests with Arizona, it will take another season for that ability to meet expectations. I expect the Toledo receivers to be too much for the Arizona defense, leading to a ground assault victory.
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