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Arizona at USC Spread

The Arizona Wildcats and USC Trojans square off in a Pac-12 showdown Saturday at Los Angeles Coliseum. This will be a rematch from last year’s 24-21 road victory by the Trojans. USC has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2001, with Arizona’s lone victory during this stretch coming 21-17 in ‘09. Surprisingly, the road team has won seven of the last ten meetings. Kick off is set for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon.

According to the Week 5 college football lines, USC is listed as a 13.5-point home favorite with a total set of 57 points.

USC

The Trojans opened the season with three straight home victories. They escaped with a 19-17 win over Minnesota in their opener, and needed a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown on the final play of the game to top Utah 23-14 the following week. USC (3-1, 1-1 Pac-12) put together their most impressive performance of the season in Week 3, downing Syracuse 38-17. The Trojans suffered their first taste of defeat last week in a 43-22 road loss to Arizona State. They would outgain the Sun Devils 402-392, but committed four costly turnovers which eventually sealed their fate. The loss put to end an 11-game winning streak for the Trojans in that series.

USC entered last week as the No. 23 team in the country, but they have fallen out of the Top 25 with the loss. The Trojans rank 48th in the country in total offense (422.6 yards/game), but just 79th in scoring offense (25.5 points/game). They have had little problem moving the ball, but nine turnovers through four games has prevented them from scoring more points. USC ranks 40th in total defense (336.1 yards/game) and 50th in scoring defense (22.8 points/game).

Matt Barkley has been making his case to be selected as a first-round draft pick next April. Barkley is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 1,119 yards and 10 touchdowns to three interceptions. Marc Tyler leads the team with 303 rushing yards (5.0/carry) and two touchdowns. Curtis McNeal has been their big-play guy in the running game, rushing 17 times for 129 yards (7.6/carry). Robert Woods is one of the top receivers in the country, catching 41 balls for 492 yards and four touchdowns. Their second-leading receiver is Marqise Lee, who is way behind Woods with 13 receptions for 179 yards and two scores.

Arizona

Without question, the Wildcats have played the toughest schedule in the country. Arizona (1-3, 0-2 Pac-12) opened their season with a 41-10 victory over Northern Arizona. After that win, they would go on to play three straight Top 10 opponents. They lost 14-37 at then-No. 9 Oklahoma State, 37-10 to then-No. 6 Stanford, and 31-56 to then-No. 10 Oregon last week. It doesn’t get much easier this weekend against USC, but at least they can say they have a lot to look forward to after getting the most difficult part of their schedule out of the way.

The Wildcats rank among the nation’s worst in all key defensive categories. Arizona is 106th in total defense (484.0 yards/game) and 106th in scoring defense (35.0 points/game). Their offense has been moving the ball with regularity, ranking 38th in total offense (434.8 yards/game). They have done most of that damage through the air as they are 5th in passing (372.5 yards/game), but only 112th in rushing (62.3 yards/game). The Wildcats are struggling in the red zone due to the lack of a running game, ranking just 86th in scoring offense (24.0 points/game).

Despite the 1-3 start, quarterback Nick Foles really could not have played any better to this point. Foles is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,447 yards with 10 touchdowns an no interceptions. It’s certainly not his fault that this team has shown poorly in the early going. He has his favorite target back this season in Juron Criner, who has a team-high 21 receptions for 295 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona features five players with 17 or more receptions, so this offense has plenty of weapons. Keola Antolin is their leading rusher with 180 yards and two touchdowns, and Ka’Deem Carey has 151 yards to compliment him.

Betting Trends

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at USC. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings as well.

Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater, but that’s about the only trend working in their favor of late. Arizona is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

USC has responded well following a loss, going 5-2 ATS in their last 7 in this situation. But the Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

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