Arkansas at LSU Odds

Written by Jack Jones

With the SEC Championship on the line Friday, the top-ranked LSU Tigers will host the third-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks down in Baton Rouge. LSU would go on to face Georgia in the SEC title game with a win, while a loss would put both Arkansas and Alabama in the picture. The Crimson Tide beat the Razorbacks at home, but they also lost to the Tigers at home, which would mean a three-way tie atop the SEC West if Arkansas were to win. In this scenario, the team with the best BCS ranking would go on to play Georgia. Arkansas has won three of their last four meetings with the Tigers, including a 31-23 home victory last season. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by eight points or less, and two went to overtime.

Taking a look at the college football odds for Week 13, I find a line of LSU -13 over Arkansas.

LSU

Without question, the top-ranked Tigers have been the best team in college football this season. They’ve gotten through one of the toughest schedules in the country unscathed, and really just have one obstacle remaining Saturday. LSU (11-0, 7-0 SEC) came into last Saturday’s game with Ole Miss in a clear letdown spot, but they would have none of it. The Tigers kept their focus and destroyed the Rebels on the road 52-3.

This was such a dominant effort that the Tigers elected to kneel four straight times on a drive that started with more than five minutes remaining. LSU had all the points they needed when Ron Brooks returned an interception for a touchdown 28 seconds into the game. They would build a 35-3 lead by halftime, and would go on to outgain the Rebels 458-195. The Tigers were able to do whatever they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 353 yards. Alfred Blue rushed for 74 yards on just four carries, and Spencer Ware chipped in 70 yards and a score. Jordan Jefferson made his second straight start at quarterback, completing all seven of his passes for 88 yards with a touchdown.

LSU comes into the Arkansas game ranked 2nd in the country in total defense (247.9 yards/game). They give up just 89.6 yards on the ground and 158.3 through the air on average. The Tigers are just 73rd in total offense (377.1 yards/game), but they have been wearing down opposing defenses thanks to a rushing attack that produces 209.5 yards/game while ranking 21st in the land. They have a three-headed monster at running back in Ware (650 yards, seven TD), Michael Ford (625 yards, seven TD) and Blue (445 yards, six TD). Since returning from his suspension, Jefferson is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 446 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Arkansas

Despite going under the radar for much of the season, the Razorbacks now find themselves as not only SEC title contenders, but national championship contenders as well. Arkansas (10-1, 6-1 SEC) is currently ranked No. 3 in the AP and the BCS polls. An upset win over LSU could catapult them ahead of both the Tigers and Alabama, but they are going to need to look impressive for that to happen. Needless to say, head coach Bobby Petrino and company are very pleased with the position they are in. Their only hiccup came at then-No. 3 Alabama in a 38-14 loss on September 24th.

Arkansas has reeled off seven straight wins since that defeat, including a dominant 44-17 home victory over Mississippi State last Saturday. Quarterback Tyler Wilson continued his stellar junior season, completing a school-record 32 passes while throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns. They outgained the Bulldogs 539-211 thanks to perhaps their most impressive effort on defense yet. The Razorbacks reeled off 30 unanswered points right after Mississippi State had closed within 14-10 in the second quarter. Dennis Johnson had a team-high 98 yards on the ground. Chris Gragg finished with eight receptions for a career-high 119 yards with a touchdown, and Jarius Wright added eight grabs for 96 yards.

The Razorbacks have the kind of offense that could finally give LSU some trouble. They rank 20th in the country in total offense (463.3 yards/game), including 10th in passing (316.9 yards/game). Arkansas also has an underrated stop unit, one that ranks 43rd in the FBS in total defense (360.3 yards/game). Wilson is completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 3,215 yards with 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Johnson leads all rushers with 606 yards and three scores. The Razorbacks have one of the most talented receiving corps in the country, led by Wright (61 receptions, 1,002 yards, 10 TD).

Betting Trends

The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.

The Razorbacks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games, but 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with LSU, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road meetings.

Looking for the winning side in this game? Expert handicapper Jack Jones has you covered Friday.

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