Arkansas at Mississippi Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 9 Arkansas Razorbacks are set to go on the road to take on the Mississippi Rebels in a SEC West showdown on Saturday. The Razorbacks crushed Auburn 38-14 at home in their last game to improve to 5-1 overall and 1-1 inside the conference. The Rebels were dominated at home 52-7 by Alabama this past Saturday, leaving them 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the SEC. Arkansas won 38-24 at home over Mississippi a season ago, and should have no trouble coming away with another win against the Rebels in 2011.

Taking a look at the week 8 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Razorbacks favored by 16-points over the Rebels with the total set at 56 points.

Arkansas Razorbacks:

The Razorbacks should be well prepared for this game, as they come in off a bye week. Arkansas went into their week off riding a huge wave of momentum. After getting blown out at Alabama 38-14, the Razorbacks rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit to beat Texas A&M 42-38 followed by an impressive win over Auburn.

Arkansas comes in averaging 39.2 ppg behind one of the more dangerous passing attacks in the SEC. Junior quarterback Tyler Wilson has completed 65% of his passes for 1,779 yards with 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. If you exclude the Alabama game, where Wilson threw for just 185 yards, he is averaging 318.8 passing yards a game.

Wilson’s favorite target has been senior wide out Jarius Wright, who has a team-high 33 catches for 554 yards and six touchdowns. Wright isn’t the only weapon at Wilson’s disposal. Seven different players have over 100 yards receiving in 2011, with six different players catching at least one touchdown pass.

The running game has been hit or miss this season, but when it’s on this offense is extremely difficult to contain. Arkansas manage just 88 yards on the ground in their two games against Alabama and Texas A&M, but have rushed for over 150 yards in every other game. In their last game against Auburn they totaled 176 yards without starter Ronnie Wingo, who leads the team with 284 yards on just 60 attempts.

This week the Razorbacks should be able to pick and choose what they want to do offensively, as they go up against a Mississippi defense that is 109th against the run (225.7 ypg) and 50th against the pass (217.2 ypg). Last week the Rebels allowed Alabama to pile on 615 yards of total offense, and are now giving up an average of 492 yards in conference games.

Mississippi Rebels:

There hasn’t been a lot that has went right for the Rebels in 2011, and it is going to be extremely hard for this team to bounce back after getting absolutely destroyed by Alabama last week. The Rebels jumped out to a 7-0 lead with a touchdown on their first possession, but were outscored 52-0 from that point on.

Mississippi features one of the worst offenses in college football. They come in averaging just 20.0 ppg and are 117th in total offense, averaging just 252.8 yards a game. They have totaled just 147 rushing yards in three conference games, while averaging just 137.0 ypg through the air in SEC play.

The only way for this offense to have any success is if they can find away to get the ground game going behind the duo of Jeff Scott and Brandon Bolden. The two have combined for 466 yards and eight touchdowns, with each averaging over 4.5 yards per carry.

The Rebels will try and get the ground game rolling against an Arkansas defense that is 89th in the country against the run (188.7 ypg). However, the Razorbacks struggles against the run are a result of their last three games against Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Auburn. Arkansas had allowed just 88 rushing yards a game before giving up 869 in their previous three contests.

Betting Trends:

Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Mississippi is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.

Steve Janus delivered another winning week in college football. The expert handicapper is 23-7 over his last 30 college picks, and ready to help you make a profit in week 8.

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