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Arkansas at Vanderbilt Spread

The eighth-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks travel to face the pesky Vanderbilt Commodores Saturday in SEC action. This is a rare meeting between these teams, as they have only squared off eight times in their history. Arkansas has won six of the eight, including a blowout 49-14 home victory over the Commodores last season. After trailing 14-6 at the end of the first quarter, the Razorbacks would go on to score 43 unanswered points the rest of the way. They outgained Vanderbilt 555-154 for the game.

According to the latest odds in Las Vegas, Arkansas is a 10-point favorite over Vanderbilt with a total set of 52 points.

Arkansas

The Razorbacks have been making a habit of coming from behind this season. Arkansas (6-1, 2-1 SEC) trailed Mississippi 17-0 on the road last week before scoring 29 unanswered points, and then holding on for a 29-24 victory. Dennis Johnson finished with a career-high 160 rushing yards on only 15 carries to lead the way. The Razorbacks have now trailed at halftime in three straight games, but they’ve been second-half monsters by outscoring their opponents 64-10 after intermission to come away with wins in all three.

Arkansas would like to get off to a much faster start this week. To do so, their defense is going to have to step up. The Razorbacks rank 64th in the country in total defense (386.7 yards/game), giving up most of that yardage in the first half. They are a respectable 34th in scoring defense (21.7 points/game), which means they have been buckling down in the red zone.

The Razorbacks boast the 22nd-ranked unit in total offense (462.2 yards/game). They rely heaving on a passing attack that ranks 9th in the land (321.9 yards/game). Arkansas is also 19th in scoring offense (37.7 points/game). Junior quarterback Tyler Wilson has been superb, completing 62.7 percent of his passes for an SEC-best 2,011 yards with 12 touchdowns to three interceptions. Jarius Wright (34 receptions, 574 yards, six TD) and Joe Adams (31, 408, one TD) are his two favorite targets.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores opened the season with three straight wins, but then went through a rough patch. Vanderbilt (4-3, 1-3 SEC) lost their next three games against three of the best teams in the SEC in then-No. 12 South Carolina, then-No. 3 Alabama and Georgia by a combined score of 88-31. They averaged 10.3 points and 205.0 yards during that three-game skid, which prompted head coach James Franklin to give quarterback Jordan Rodgers his first start last Saturday.

Rodgers, the brother of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, guided the Commodores to a 44-21 victory over Army. While Rodgers wasn’t spectacular, completing 10 of 27 passes for 186 yards with one touchdown and two picks, he did lead the Vanderbilt offense to a season-high 530 total yards. He completed two passes of more than 40 yards to open up the running game as Vanderbilt finished with 344 yards on the ground. Rodgers ran for 96 yards and a score, and Zach Stacy had a career-high 198 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Even after that offensive explosion, the Commodores still rank just 108th in the country in total offense (300.0 yards/game). They are also 80th in the land in scoring offense (24.9 points/game). What has allowed Vanderbilt to stay competitive is a stop unit that ranks 23rd in the FBS in total defense (323.9 yards/game) and 33rd in scoring (21.6 points/game). The Commodores are 4-1 at Vanderbilt Stadium this year, as opposed to 0-2 on the road. They have never beaten Arkansas at home.

Betting Trends

The Razorbacks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.

The Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.