2011 Army Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

Rich Ellerson has injected new life into the Army football program in just two seasons on the job. Their head man is just one game below .500 with a 12-13 record the past two years, and he led the Black Knights to a bowl game and a winning record for the first time since 1996 last season. Not only did Army reach the postseason in 2010, they were victorious by topping SMU 16-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl.

With only 11 returning starters from a team that went 7-6 last season, it will be tough for the cadets to reach a second bowl bid in as many years. Ellerson has brought back the triple-option to Army with success, and there’s no question he is the right man for the job. Here is a preview of what they have in store on offense and defense heading into 2011, along with my prediction on how they will fare among the other three Independent schools.

Offense:

The 2010 Army offense was one of the most productive in school history. The Knights averaged 26.6 points and 330 total yards/game, up 11.3 points and 55 yards from ‘09. With six returning starters and a third year under Ellerson in the triple-option, I like their chances of improving their numbers once again in 2011. Junior QB Trent Steelman is coming off a tremendous year, throwing for 995 yards and 7 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. He became the first Army QB since 1988 to score a TD in six consecutive games, and finished second on the team in rushing (721 yards, 11 TD). He also didn’t throw an interception until their ninth game of the season, and his smart play was a big reason for their +16 turnover ratio.

Junior FB Jared Hassin returns after leading the team in rushing (1013 yards, 5.3/carry, 9 TD). He also finished third on the team in receiving (12 catches, 154 yards), and earned first-team All-Independent honors for his efforts. Six of Army’s top seven rushers return, including sophomore RB Raymond Maples (208 yards, 4.4/carry, 1 TD), along with junior SB’s Malcolm Brown (343, 5.5, 4) and Brian Cobbs (302, 6.0, 5). At receiver, the Knights welcome back their top two from last season in seniors Davyd Brooks (15 catches, 238 yards, 1 TD) and Austin Barr (14, 215, 3). As you can see, almost all of their skill players return which should equal improved numbers.

The one concern on this side of the ball is the offensive line, where only one starter returns up front. Army averaged as whopping 252 rushing yards/game on 4.5/carry last season. They lose three 2-year starters and a 3.5-year starter along the O-line. Most service academies don’t return many starters from year to year, so it’s certainly possible that they could be as good as they were last season. Junior LG Frank Allen is their lone returnee, but they do have five upperclassmen in the projected lineup and 21 career starts returning.

Defense:

The Knights did suffer a small drop-off in production on defense last year, but they were still solid as a whole. Army allowed 24.3 points and 338 total yards/game in 2010. They welcome back five starters on this side of the ball, but lose six of their top eight tacklers. The cadets gave up 139 yards/game on 4.2/carry on the ground last season while registering 25 sacks. They lose some talent along the defensive line where DE Josh McNary (Army record-holder with 49 career tackles for loss), NG Mike Gan (28 tackles, 2 sacks) and DE Marcus Hilton (#7 tackler, 2 sacks) have all graduated. They bring back junior DE Jarrett Mackey (#4 tackler, 47 tackles, 6.5 for loss) as their lone returning starter up front.

At linebacker, the Knights lose their #1 tackler in SLB Stephen Anderson (108 tacklers, 12 for loss). They do bring back their #2 tackler in senior MLB Steven Erzinger (76 tackles, 4.5 for loss). They may also get back 2009 leading tackler Andrew Rodriquez, who did not play last season due to a back injury. Their #10 tackler in Chad Littlejohn (30 tackles, 3 for loss) also returns, but he’ll likely have to serve as backup to talented sophomore BAN Ryan McCollum. Junior WLB Zach Watts (20 tackles) made three starts last season and is ready to take over a full-time role.

The secondary played very well last season as Army surrendered only 199 passing yards/game on 57.2% completions. It certainly helps with the schedule they play, facing a few other teams that run the triple-option and rarely pass. They lose a lot of talent in the secondary this season. FS Donovan Travis (#3 tackler, 5 INT, 6 pass break-ups), SS Donnie Dixon (#6 tackler, 1 INT, 5 PBU) and Jordan Timble (#7 tackler, 5 INT, 6 PBU) have all departed. They do welcome back three defensive backs who have all started nine or more games in a season. Senior CB Richard King (23 tackles, 4 INT, 3 PBU) and junior CB Josh Jackson (33 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PBU) are the two best DB’s they have returning. Army may be forced to start a pair of sophomores at SS and FS in Lyle Beloney and Tyler Dickson, respectively.

Independents Prediction: 4th Place – Army has the luxury of facing the easiest schedule of all the Independent schools. They will certainly have to pull off a few upsets along the way if they want to get back to a bowl game, but six wins is within reach. I have concern about their lack of experience along the offensive line, as well as the loss of six of their top eight tacklers on defense. While I like what Ellerson has going here at Army, my best guess is that they will fall short of their second winning season since 1996.

Independent Team Predictions
Notre Dame Football Predictions	BYU Football Predictions
Army Football Predictions	Navy Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

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