2011 AT&T National Predictions


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This week the PGA Tour heads to Newtown, Square, Pennsylvania for the 2011 AT&T National. The tournament will be held at Aronimink Golf Club for a second straight season. The event is normally held at Congressional Country Club, but it was the site of the 2011 U.S. Open. The tournament will return to Congressional in 2012.

Aronimink is a challenging par-70 course that can be stretched to 7,237 yards. In 2010 it was the second hardest par-70 course on TOUR. While it helps to be long off the tee, the key to scoring low is getting the ball on the green in regulation. If you don’t find the green it can be a challenge to get up and down with the tricky undulations. Players must take advantage of easy birdies whenever they get a chance, as there are many holes where par is good score. Pars will be at a premium down the stretch, as there are four holes over the final five that rank in the top seven in handicap on this course.

Last year Justin Rose won this event with a 10-under 270, finishing one-shot ahead of Ryan Moore. Of the 71 players who made the cut, only 27 of them shot under par on Sunday. That really shows how important it is for players to get off to a strong start on Thursday and Friday.

For those of you looking to place a bet on the tournament this week, here is a look at three golfers I feel have a great shot at winning this event.

Ryan Moore (+1800) - My favorite to win this week is Ryan Moore, who comes in with the third best odds behind Nick Watney (+1200) and Hunter Mahan (+1500). Moore shot a 5-under 65 on the final round of this event in 2010 to nearly catch Rose, which shows you he can attack this course when it’s at its hardest. Not only will Moore be confident after his strong finish here a year ago, but he is coming off a solid finish at the Travelers Championship last week. where he tied for 2nd with a 19-under 261. Moore is one of the best putters on TOUR, which gives him a big advantage on the tough greens of Aronimink.

Bo Van Pelt (+2000) -  Here is a guy who comes in playing his best golf of the season. Van Pelt has finished in the top 15 in four straight starts, including a T14 at the U.S. Open and a T13 last week at the Travelers Championship. He also had a strong showing at this event last year, finishing T11. He definitely has the game to score well on this course. He is 49th in driving distance, 42nd in driving accuracy, and 23rd in greens in regulation. If he can get the putter rolling he should be right there with a great shot to win on Sunday.

J.B. Holmes (+4500) – Holmes has the distance off the tee to really put himself in a lot of great situations on this course. In 2010 he finished fifth at this event with a 6-under 274, despite a even 70 on Thursday and 1-over 71 on Saturday. He is more than capable of putting four solid rounds together and winning this event, which makes him a great play at +4500. Holmes is 1st in driving distance, 36th in greens in regulation, and 32nd in putting.

Be sure to stop back each week for our PGA TOUR predictions.

Complete AT&T National Odds

Nick Watney +1200
Hunter Mahan +1500
Ryan Moore +1800
Bo Van Pelt +2000
K.J. Choi +2000
Webb Simpson +2500
Bill Haas +3000
Adam Scott +3000
Justin Rose +3000
Jim Furyk +3500
Kevin Streelman +3500
Rickie Fowler +3500
Charles Howell +4000
Gary Woodland +4000
Carl Pettersson +4500
Jason Dufner +4500
Brian Gay +4500
J.B. Holmes +4500
Vijay Singh +5000
Camilo Villegas +5000
Lucas Glover +5000
Jeff Overton +5500
Geoff Ogilvy +5500
Ryuji Imada +5500
Steve Marino +5500
Ricky Barnes +6000
Brian Davis +6000
Robert Allenby +6000
Charley Hoffman +6000
Mark Wilson +6500
Sean O’Hair +6500
Spencer Levin +6500
Charlie Wi +6500
DJ Trahan +7000
Bryce Molder +7000
Andres Romero +7500
Harrison Frazar +7500
Pat Perez +7500
John Merrick +7500
Robert Garrigus +7500
Marc Leishman +8000
Kevin Na +8000
JJ Henry +8000
Vaughn Taylor +8000
Keegan Bradley +9000
Rod Pampling +9000
Jhonattan Vegas +9000
Kevin Chappell +9000
Ben Curtis +10000
Brendon De Jonge +10000
Anthony Kim +10000
Paul Goydos +10000
DA Points +10000
Blake Adams +10000
Johnson Wagner +10000
Chris Couch +10000
Tommy Gainey +10000
Patrick Cantlay +10000
Chris Stroud +10000
Troy Matteson +12500
Trevor Immelman +12500
Arjun Atwal +12500
Stephen Ames +12500
Michael Thompson +12500
Erik Compton +12500
Tim Petrovic +12500
Tom Gillis +12500
Jimmy Walker +12500
Hunter Haas +12500
Chris DiMarco +12500
Tim Herron +12500
Kevin Stadler +12500
Greg Chalmers +15000

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