Georgia at Auburn
The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1, 6-1 SEC) look to clinch the SEC East with a road victory against the Auburn Tigers (2-7, 0-6 SEC) this Saturday. Taking a look at the odds for Week 10, I find a spread of Georgia -15.5 over Auburn and a total set of 53 points.
Why Georgia Covers
A win guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC title game for a second straight season. That would also mean that its national title hopes are still alive considering the winner of the SEC Championship game has made it to the BCS Championship in six straight seasons. They certainly won’t be taking the Tigers lightly with what’s at stake.
Georgia got its mojo back with a 17-9 victory over Florida on October 27th. That was the game it needed to put itself in position to be SEC East champs for a second straight year. It carried over that momentum with a 37-10 win over Ole Miss last week. It has arguably played its two most complete games the last two weeks, so it his hitting its stride at the right time.
Auburn has simply been atrocious this season. It doesn’t have an SEC win this year, and it ranks among the worst teams in the country in every major statistical category. The Tigers are getting outscored 13.5 to 30.8 in SEC play, or by an average of 17.3 points per game. They rank 116th in the country in total offense (305.2 yards/game) and 85th in total defense (428.7 yards/game).
Georgia beat Auburn 45-7 at home last season. This contest wasn’t even close as the Tigers outgained the Bulldogs 528-195 for the game. Aaron Murray threw for 224 yards and four touchdowns in the win.
The Bulldogs are 16-6 against the spread in road games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The Tigers are 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Auburn is 0-5 against the spread in its last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Why Auburn Covers
Oddsmakers have obviously factored in the fact that Georgia needs this game a lot more than Auburn does. That’s why they have set the Bulldogs as more than a two touchdown road favorite the Tigers. Auburn remains a tough place to play despite how poorly it has played as a whole this season.
The Tigers have played their best football at home this year as both of their wins have come there. They are only getting outscored by 4.6 points per game at home this year. Georgia is only outscoring its opponents by 1.5 points per game in four road games this season. It lost at South Carolina 7-35, and it only beat Kentucky 29-24 in two of its three SEC road games.
The home team is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last 5 meetings in this series. Auburn is 8-1 against the spread in its last 9 games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in its last game. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 18.8 points per game in this spot.
Auburn is 22-10 against the spread in its last 32 home games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10 or more points per game. The Tigers are 21-8-1 against the spread in their last 30 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Auburn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.