Auburn at LSU Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The top-ranked LSU Tigers look to continue their impressive start to the 2011 season Saturday when they host the No. 20 Auburn Tigers. This will be LSU’s fifth game against a ranked opponent this season, so they have certainly earned their No. 1 ranking. Auburn beat LSU 24-17 at home last season en route to winning the national title, which was their first win over their SEC West rivals since 2006. They held a 528-243 yard edge behind 217 rushing yards from eventual Heisman Trophy winner, Cam Newton.

According to odds makers, LSU is a 22.5-point favorite with a total set of 46.5 points.

LSU

Given their schedule, the Tigers have been the best team in college football. LSU (7-0, 4-0 SEC) pieced together yet another dominant performance last week, winning at Tennessee 38-7. They held the Vols to just 239 total yards while forcing two turnovers. Jarrett Lee was very efficient at quarterback, completing 10 of 14 passes for 115 yards with two touchdowns. Backup quarterback Jordan Jefferson rushed 14 times for 73 yards and a score.

LSU has won all seven of their games by 13 points or more. They have been winning behind one of the best defenses in the country, and an offense that simply doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in total defense (251.8 yards/game), including 7th in scoring defense (11.7 points/game). While this team is only 80th in the land in total offense (369.1 yards/game), they are 20th in scoring offense (38.4 points/game). This just goes to show how their defense sets them up with good field position, and the offense capitalizes in the red zone behind a power running game.

Lee has been better than anyone could have expected after taking over for suspended starter Jefferson. He is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,062 yards and 10 touchdowns with just one interception. Reuben Randle is their top playmaker at receiver, catching 28 balls for 532 yards and five touchdowns. Spencer Ware (512 yards, 4.0/carry, six TD) and Michael Ford (359 yards, 5.4/carry, six TD) have each carried the load on the ground.

Auburn

Many believed that the Tigers would falter this season with so many new faces, and the fewest returning starters in college football. That hasn’t been the case for Auburn (5-2, 3-1 SEC), which just keeps finding ways to win. Auburn has also faced three ranked teams at the time that they played them, plus the Clemson Tigers, who are now inside the Top 10. The Tigers are coming off a 17-6 win over Florida last Saturday in a game that really showed what their defense is capable of. They held the Gators to just 194 total yards and forced three turnovers in the win.

Barrett Trotter had his worst game yet against Florida, going just 2-of-8 passing for 33 yards and a touchdown. Clint Mosely took over for Trotter at halftime last weekend, and finished 4-of-7 for 90 yards. Moseley has been named the starter for the LSU game, and he’ll be making his first career start Saturday. “We need a spark there,” coach Gene Chizik said. DE LaDarius Owens is expected to miss the rest of the season with an injury. He’s their third weak-side DE to suffer a season-ending injury.

Auburn has been fortunate to come away with a 5-2 record to this point given that their offensive and defense numbers haven’t been spectacular. The Tigers rank 86th in the country in total offense (360.9 yards/game) and 78th in total defense (404.4 yards/game). They do have the 27th-best ground game (197.0 yards/game) in the land. Michael Dyer is having a monster season, rushing for 752 yards (5.1/carry) and eight touchdowns. Onterio McCalebb (355 yards, 5.4/carry, one TD) gives him a spell once in a while, and he’s also an excellent pass-catcher (19 receptions, 201 yards, one TD) out of the backfield.

Betting Trends

The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. LSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, but just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Auburn is an incredible 13-3 ATS in their last 16 conference games, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. However, they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

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