Auburn at South Carolina Odds


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Steve Spurrier’s 10th-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks host the Auburn Tigers Saturday in a rematch from last season’s SEC championship game. The Tigers would beat the Gamecocks 56-17 for a trip to the BCS National Championship, where they edged out Oregon for the title. Auburn also won 35-27 at home earlier in the season, and they’ve now won six straight in this series since a 16-14 loss in 1933. These teams didn’t play each other from 1934-95.

Taking a look at the Week 5 college football spreads, I find a line of South Carolina -10 over Auburn with a total set of 59.5 points.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks are off to their best start since opening 5-0 in 2001. South Carolina (4-0, 2-0 SEC) has not made it look easy, though. The Gamecocks had to erase a 17-0 deficit in their opener to beat East Carolina 56-37. They needed two defensive touchdowns from defensive end Melvin Ingram to top Georgia 45-42 the following week. In Week 3, they would squeak by Navy 24-21 before topping Vanderbilt 21-3 last Saturday. QB Stephen Garcia threw four interceptions, and Marcus Lattimore was held to just 77 yards on 20 carries against the Commodores after coming into that game as the FBS leader in rushing (178.0 yards/game).

South Carolina was bailed out by a defense that held Vanderbilt to just 77 yards last week, and Ingram registered another touchdown on a fumble recovery. That gives the defensive end as many touchdowns (three) on the season as Garcia. The Gamecocks rank 23rd in the country in total defense (298.3 yards/game) and 68th in scoring defense (25.8 points/game). South Carolina is 66th in total offense (392.8 yards/game) and 31st in scoring offense (36.5 points/game).

Garcia is in jeopardy of losing his job, completing just 54.7 percent of his passes for 684 yards and three touchdowns to seven interceptions. Expect a heavy dose of Lattimore Saturday, who has rushed for 611 yards and eight touchdowns. Alshon Jeffery has gotten off to a slow start after a monster season last year, catching just 14 balls for 246 yards and a touchdown. Lattimore is their second-leading receiver with 12 receptions for 139 yards and a score.

Auburn

It was pretty clear that this was going to be a rebuilding year for Auburn (3-1, 1-0 SEC) when they needed a miracle at the end of their opener to beat Utah State 42-38. They scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes, and executed an onside kick to steal the victory. The Tigers would make a believer out of many with a 41-34 win over Mississippi State the following week, but fell 38-24 at Clemson in Week 3 for their first loss in nearly two years. Auburn wasn’t all that sharp last week, either, beating Florida Atlantic 30-14.

The Tigers are clearly hurting defensively with the loss of so many key players, including Nick Fairley. Auburn ranks 104th in total defense (477.5 yards/game) and 92nd in scoring defense (31.0 points/game). This team has also taken a step back offensively, ranking 76th in total offense (373.8 yards/game) and 43rd in scoring offense (34.3 points/game). They are giving up 226.5 yards/game on the ground, and could be in for a long day against Lattimore this weekend.

Junior quarterback Barrett Trotter had some big shoes to fill after Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton left for the NFL. Trotter has played about as well as you could expect, completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 783 yards and eight touchdowns to three interceptions. He has found a go-to receiver in Emory Blake, who has caught 16 balls for 317 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Dyer leads the team in rushing with 426 yards (6.9/carry) and six touchdowns. Onterio McCalebb has chipped in 163 rushing yards and 12 receptions for 140 yards and a score.

Betting Trends

Auburn is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. The Tigers are an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games, doing most of that damage last season, though.

The Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

Jack Jones is locked in and ready to help you win on the college gridiron in 2011.  Sign up for a premium package today and ride this expert handicapper to big-time profits this season.

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