2011 Ball State Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Ball State heads into 2011 hoping to build on late season improvement last year and feed on the energy of new coach, 41 year old Pete Lembo, who sustained a lot of success at both Lehigh and Elon.
This will likely be a season of transition as Lembo brings a fairly unique style of football that will take some adjustments for the players. Lembo has some building blocks on both sides of the ball, including a talented sophomore QB in Keith Wenning, who has the tools to excel in this offense.
The top three leading tacklers return from last season, including impact middle linebacker Travis Freeman, who is truly a sideline to sideline defender. The secondary should be very good and possess a solid safety tandem in Kyle Hoke and Sean Baker. The Cardinals have floundered since 2008’s breakthrough season under Brady Hoke and feel that they have the perfect hire in Lembo to regain those heights.
Offensively Ball State is going to throw the ball a lot. Keith Wenning has the skill set to run this offense effectively and the athleticism to buy time. He struggled at times last season, throwing three picks in three different games, but should improve with experience and coaching.
Lembo is bringing a no-huddle attack that is more air raid than QB read, which likely gives the better passing Wenning an edge over back up QB Kelly Price, who saw a lot of time last season and started seven games as a red shirt freshman.
Eric Williams and Cory Sykes are nice complements to each other at tailback, as Williams has the frame and speed to run outside or inside and Sykes brings big play ability in a small package (5’7 160, 5.7 yards per carry last season). David Browne will also see time, brining depth and experience to the position.
Briggs Orsbon should excel in his new role as a slot receiver and is joined by returners Jack Tomlinson and Jamill Smith at the wide out position. Ball State would ideally rotate a lot of players in this spot and will need to work to build depth and chemistry at this position. Aaron Mershman needs to add size, but is a quality receiver at tight end.
The Cardinals boast 6 players along the offensive line with starting experience and should be able to plug in and play all six in this system. Austin Holtz will step in at the “quick” tackle spot and boasts 14 starts heading into his junior season. “Quick” guard Kitt O’Brien started every game last season.
Defensively the Cardinals return experience at every level and should be lead by a talented back seven. The secondary boasts a very good safety tandem in Sean Baker (88 tackles, 6 INTs) and Kyle Hoke, who missed time with injury last season, but returns with a lot of guile and experience. Jason Pinkston has great size and ball skills for a corner and will help ease in new replacements for Koreen Burch and Charlie Todd.
Middle linebacker Travis Freeman made plays all over the field last year and boasts good speed and instincts, plus plays with a mean streak. Tony Martin returns as the weakside ‘backer after a solid 76 tackle campaign.
Anderw Puthoff also returns after starting all 12 games last year at end, and Adam Morris will anchor one tackle spot. Expected starters Nathan Olle (DT) and Matthew Mosely saw a lot of time last season and should be able to step in and match the production of Robert Eddins and nose Rene Perry.
This unit should provide a better pass rush given the cover ability of their back seven this season. Ball State struggled at times defending the run last year, giving up over 200 rushing yards five times, including three versus MAC foes. If they can tighten up against the run and force more turnovers this could be a surprise unit in the MAC.
Punter Scott Kovanda returns and is coming off a solid season with a 40.0 yard per punt average and a net of 33.9 yards. It is worth noting that he did have two punts blocked last season. Kicker Iam McGarvey had a good year last year (14-17 FGs) and must be replaced. Steven Schott and Scott Secor are still battling for this spot. Neither has kicked a field goal in a college game. Eric Williams and Jamill Smith return at kick and punt return, respectively, and both had solid seasons last year, including a 92 yard kick return for Williams. Special teams should be a strength for this team.
Schedule Analysis: Ball State faces a tough non-conference slate, facing Indiana on a neutral field, traveling to South Florida, hosting Army and traveling to Oklahoma. The conference schedule isn’t much easier as they only face three “down” MAC programs, although they do get two of them at home: Buffalo in week three and Central Michigan in week eight. The road schedule features tough games at Ohio, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois, with their easiest match up against Eastern Michigan sandwiched in between the road dates with Western Michigan and Northern Illinois.
Season Record Predictions: 3-9 Overall (2-6, 5th in the MAC West)
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