2012 Baltimore Orioles Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Baltimore Orioles struggled in their first full season under manager Buck Showalter, finishing last in the loaded AL East with a 69-93 record. The team’s biggest struggle has been finding a reliable core of starters to keep them in contention. Last year Baltimore’s pitching staff finished with an AL-worst 4.89 ERA. They have went out and added Wie-Yin Chen from Taiwan, but it doesn’t appear they have done enough to get out of the basement in the East. Here is a closer look at the Orioles projected lineup, projected rotation, and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Matt Wieters (Catcher) – The future appears bright for the Orioles 25-year-old catcher after a breakout campaign in 2011. Wieters hit .262 with 22 home runs and 68 RBI in 139 games, but it was his 15 home runs and .833 OPS in the second half that really has the organization excited.
Mark Reynolds (First Base) – Reynolds 196 strikeouts led to a below-average .221 batting average, but his job is to hit the long ball. Reynolds blasted 37 home runs with 86 RBI last year. It was the third straight season where he hit at least 32 homers with 85 RBI.
Brian Roberts (Second Base) – Roberts didn’t play after May 16 because of serious concussion symptoms, but there are some encouraging signs that he will be able to play this season. Roberts is a legit leadoff hitter when healthy. He hit .283 with 16 home runs, 78 RBI and 30 stolen bases in 2009, but has totaled just 98 games the past two seasons. If he can’t go, look for Robert Andino to start at second.
J.J. Hardy (Shortstop) – Hardy really came alive in his first season with the Orioles. He hit .269 with a career-high 30 home runs and tied his career best with 80 RBI. The 29-year-old is also a star on the defensive side of the ball.
Chris Davis (Third Base) – The Orioles landed Davis in a midseason trade with the Rangers last year, and are hoping he can provide some power to the Orioles offense. Much like Reynolds, Davis strikes out too much to post a strong batting average, but he did hit 38 home runs with 114 RBI in 2008 and 2009.
Nolan Reimold (Left Field) – It looks like the Orioles are going to give Reimold the first crack at the starting job in left field. He has played sparingly over the last three years, but could be in for a breakout season. He hit 13 homers and drove in 45 runs in just 267 at-bats last season. Given 500 at-bats he should hit right around 24 home runs with 80 RBI.
Adam Jones (Center Field) – Jones was named the Orioles MVP last season and the expectations are extremely high going forward for the 26-year-old. He set career-highs in home runs (25), doubles (26), and RBI (83), while posting a respectable .280 batting average. Jones has continued to improve over the last three seasons, which is a good sign that his best years are still ahead of him.
Nick Markakis (Right Field) – Markakis numbers were down from years past, but that’s not to say he didn’t have a strong season. His string of four straight seasons with at least 43 doubles was put to a rest with just 31 in 2011, but he still hit .284 with 15 home runs and 73 RBI.
Wilson Betemit (Designated Hitter) – Betemit is the frontrunner to be the designated hitter in 2012. He hit .285 with eight home runs and 46 RBI with the Tigers and Royals last season. Reimold and Wieters will also likely see time at DH, so don’t put a lot of stock into Betemit’s value.
Projected Rotation
Zach Britton (LHP) – Britton had an up and down rookie season in 2011. He posted a 3.18 ERA 1.23 WHIP in his first 13 starts, but didn’t pitch well late in the year. Over his last 15 starts he had an ERA of 6.22 and WHIP of 1.70. Still plenty of time for the 24-year-old to develop into a dependable starter, but I wouldn’t expect a huge turnaround in 2012.
Jason Hammel (RHP) – The Orioles acquired Hammel in a deal that sent Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies. Hammel hasn’t exactly done much in his big league career that makes me believe he can really make an impact for Baltimore. He went just 7-13 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 27 starts with Colorado last season.
Jake Arrieta (RHP) – Arrieta was second on the team with 10 wins in just 22 starts last year, but he must improve his 5.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP if he wants to consistently reach the double-digit win plateau. He turns just 26 in March, so there is still time for him to turn the corner.
Wei-Yin Chen (LHP) – It’s hard telling whether or not the addition of Chen will pay off. He posted a 2.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over four seasons in Japan, but who knows how that will translate. He could end up being the ace of this staff, or fail to make the rotation all together.
Tsuyoshi Wade (LHP) -The Orioles also added Wade from Japan, but he doesn’t appear to have the same upside as Chen. Wade is a soft-tossing lefty who has a number of different pitches, but you have to be spot on if you are going to throw a mid-80′s fastball, especially in the offensive-minded AL East.
Projected Closer
Jim Johnson (RHP) – The Orioles signed Kevin Gregg to be the closer last year, but he quickly pitched himself out of the ninth inning. Johnson took over the closer role with some success in September and is expected to get first crack at the job this spring.
| 2012 Baltimore Orioles Odds | |
| Win World Series | +15000 |
| Win AL Pennant | +7500 |
| AL East | +1000 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O69.5 (+105) |
| U69.5 (-135) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Nick Markakis – 25.5
Adam Jones – 22.5
Matt Wieters – 19.5
Mark Reynolds – 32.5
MLB Predictions by Team
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