2011 Baylor Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Baylor Bears reached a bowl game for the first time since 1994 last season. They would get embarrassed by Illinois 14-38 in the Texas Bowl, but it was still a very productive season at 7-6. While they only beat one team with a winning record last year, head coach Art Briles has this program moving in the right direction. He enters his fourth year on the job and has compiled a 49-50 career record, which includes the five years he spent as Houston’s head man.

Baylor brings back 14 starters and should contend for back-to-back bowl berths this season. The offense remains loaded, but the defense is going to be the biggest concern after a disastrous 2010 campaign. I’m going to preview their offense and defense below, and I will also offer my prediction on how they will fare in the Big 12 in 2011.

Offense:

Junior QB Robert Griffin III returns to lead an offense that was one of the most productive in school history. He became Baylor’s first 3,000-yard passer last season, throwing for 3,501 yards on 67% completions to go along with 22 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Griffin was also second on the team in rushing with 635 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. He is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Baylor scored 31.2 points and averaged 475 total yards per contest last season thanks in large part to Griffin’s heroics.

The Bears do lose 2010 leading rusher Jay Finley, who ran for 1,245 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.2/carry. He is going to be tough to replace. The leading candidates to fill his shoes are junior Jarred Salubi and senior Terrance Ganaway. Salubi is likely to get the first crack after rushing for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 26 carries last season, averaging 8.3/pop. Ganaway ran 46 times for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns while averaging 6.4/carry in 2010. But without Finley, the Bears are going to have a hard time matching the 195 yards and 5.4/carry they averaged a year ago.

Baylor is loaded at receiver this season as they return their top five pass-catchers from 2010. Junior Kendall Wright led the way with 78 receptions for 952 yards and 7 touchdowns. Juniors Josh Gordon (42, 714, 7) and Lanear Sampson (42, 390, 0) flank him on the outside. Junior Terrance Williams (43, 484, 4) and sophomore Tevin Reese (45, 401, 0) also figure to get into the rotation off the bench after each had very productive seasons last year. Stanford transfer Jordan Najvar figures to start right away at tight end in his sophomore season. The Bears have two more talented sophomores and three redshirt freshmen coming in, prompting Briles to say that this could be the best set of WR’s in the country.

The offensive line was dominant last season, paving the way for 195 rushing yards and 281 passing yards per contest while allowing only 20 sacks. They do lose second-team All-Big 12 LT Danny Watkins from that unit, but return eight of their top 10 up front. The linemen that come back have combined for 77 career starts, making this one of the more experience units in the country. Their job is to keep Robert Griffin III healthy, and if they do that this offense has the potential to post even bigger numbers than the monstrous ones they put up last season.

Defense:

As has been the case for several years running, the Bears just haven’t been able to stop anybody on defense. Baylor yielded 30.5 points and 435 total yards per game in 2010. They bring back only five starters on defense, and lose their top five tacklers from a year ago. Their rushing numbers were not good (170/game, 4.4/carry), and they only recorded 21 sacks. Baylor loses their best lineman in NT Phil Taylor, who had 62 tackles (7 for loss) and was drafted in the first round by the Cleveland Browns. This unit still has a chance at improving their numbers considering eight players return to the D-line with starting experience. Look for junior Gary Mason (3 TFL) and sophomore Tevin Elliot (9 TFL) to start at defensive end, while seniors Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (1.5 TFL) and Tracy Robertson man the middle.

Baylor came into last season inexperienced at linebacker, and that’s the case once again in 2011. The Bears lose #2 tackler Chris Francis (72) and #4 tackler Antonio Johnson (70), along with #10 tackler Earl Patin (38). Their only returning starter is senior MLB Elliot Coffey, who finish #6 on the team with 61 stops. Due to the lack of experience at linebacker, the Bears made the switch to a 4-2-5 scheme in the spring. Very highly touted sophomore Ahmad Dixon will fill the NB role after appearing in 11 games as a freshman.

This team has a lot of room to improve against the pass after yielding 265 yards/game on 66.2% completions last season. The problem is that they lose a lot of talent in the secondary, including leading tackler Byron Landor who made 127 stops last year. Also gone are CB Mikail Baker (#7 tackler, drafted in 7th round by Cleveland), FS Tim Atchison (#2 tackler, 8 pass break-ups), CB Antareis Bryan and Clifton Odom. Junior CB Chance Casey (48 tackles) is the lone returning starter. Sophomores Tyler Stephenson and Sam Hoil, as well as junior Mike Hicks are expected to start. All three of these players saw limited action last year. Baylor must find a way to get more pressure on the quarterback with their front four to take some of the pressure off of this inexperienced secondary.

Big 12 Prediction: 6th Place – While the Bears are not in great shape defensively, I believe the switch to a 4-2-5 scheme will help maximize their talent. The offense is absolutely loaded, and while it’s not easy to outscore teams when you have a bad defense, Baylor has the weapons that can make it happen. Robert Griffin III is one of the best in the land, and he has perhaps the best WR corps in the country to work with. I like their chances to beat Iowa State and Missouri at home, as well as Texas Tech in Arlington and Kansas State and Kansas on the road. This has the makings of a 5-4 team in the Big 12, and the Bears are primed to make a second consecutive trip to a bowl game.

Big 12 Football Predictions by Team
Iowa State Football Predictions	Kansas Football Predictions
Kansas State Football Predictions	Missouri Football Predictions
Baylor Football Predictions	Oklahoma Football Predictions
Oklahoma State Football Predictions	Texas Football Predictions
Texas A&M Football Predictions	Texas Tech Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

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