Baylor at Kansas State Spread

Written by Jack Jones - Google +

Two unbeatens collide when the Baylor Bears visit the Kansas State Wildcats Saturday in Big 12 action. This is the conference opener for both squads, and kick off is set for 3:30 EST. These teams played in a barn-burner last season, with Baylor prevailing at home 47-42. The Bears have won two of the last three meetings, but the Wildcats have taken five of the last seven overall. The home team has won four straight in this series.

Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, I find a line of Baylor -3.5 over Kansas State.

Baylor

Few teams have been lighting up the scoreboard quite like the Bears in the early going. Baylor (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) opened the season with a stunning 50-48 home win over then-No. 14 TCU, putting their name on the map. They would blank Stephen F. Austin 48-0 in their second game of the season before crushing Rice 56-31 last week. The Bears are currently the No. 15 team in the country according to the most recent Top 25 poll.

The Bears rank 3rd in the country in scoring offense (51.3 points/game) and 2nd in total offense (594.0 yards/game). The defense was the biggest concern heading into 2011, but they have been respectable on this side of the ball thus far. Baylor is 59th in total defense (363.0 yards/game) and 71st in scoring defense (26.3 points/game).

Robert Griffin III is making his case for a Heisman Trophy. The junior quarterback is completing a ridiculous 85.4 percent of his passes for 962 yards and 13 touchdowns with no interceptions. He is one of the best dual-threat QB’s in the country, also rushing for 167 yards and a score. Terrance Ganaway has been a pleasant surprise at running back, rushing for 289 yards and three touchdowns. Kendall Wright is an unstoppable force at receiver, catching 31 balls for 420 yards and four touchdowns already.

Kansas State

It appeared like it may be a rebuilding year for Kansas State (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) when they barely escaped with a 10-7 win over Eastern Kentucky in their opener. The Wildcats would look much sharper in their next game, blanking Kent State 37-0 at home. Kansas State’s first true test came last week at Miami, but the Wildcats were up to the challenge and prevailed with a 28-24 road victory over the Hurricanes. They stopped Miami quarterback Jacory Harris’ fourth-down run at the goal line with just 49 seconds remaining to seal the win.

The Wildcats have managed a perfect 3-0 start in spite of an offense that ranks 88th in total offense (345.4 yards/game) and 81st in scoring (25.0 points/game). Clearly, Kansas State features one of the better defenses in the nation. The Wildcats rank 6th in total defense (246.3 yards/game) and 7th in scoring defense (10.3 points/game). We’ll certainly find out how good this stop unit is when they take on the explosive Bears on Saturday.

Junior QB Collin Klein hasn’t been asked to do much through the air, completing 59.6 percent of his passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns to one interception. Klein has done most of his damage on the ground, rushing for a team-high 310 yards and three touchdowns. John Hubert has been a force at running back, rushing for 286 yards (6.5/carry) and one touchdown. Chris Harper leads the team with 11 receptions for 122 yards and a score.

Betting Trends

The Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Baylor is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games, though.

The Wildcats enter this game on a 10-4 ATS run on conference games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Kansas State has gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog, and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Other resources:

Holy Turf – Gives a very detailed article on the five keys to this matchup.

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