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Baylor at Texas A&M Odds

The 20th-ranked Baylor Bears head to College Station this Saturday to take on the No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies. This will be the last time these former Big 12 South rivals meet as conference opponents, as the Aggies will be making the move to the SEC next year. Texas A&M has had the Bears’ number over the past decade, winning eight of 10 meetings. The Aggies topped Baylor 42-30 on the road last season as a 3-point favorite.

Taking a look at the college football spreads for Week 6, I find a line of Texas A&M -9 over Baylor and a total set of 75 points.

Texas A&M

The Aggies stopped the bleeding last week with a 45-40 road victory over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) had to have a hard time recovering from back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas. They blew a 17-point lead to the Cowboys to fall 30-29, and then squandered an 18-point lead over Arkansas to lose 42-38. With their win over the Red Raiders Saturday, the Aggies still have a shot to win the Big 12.

Texas A&M took a 31-20 lead into halftime against the Texas Tech and avoided a collapse thanks to a ground game that produced 205 rushing yards. The Aggies were outgained 393-523, but made the most of their red zone opportunities by scoring five touchdowns from inside the Red Raiders’ 20-yard line. They also got a boost with a blocked field goal that was returned 65 yards for a touchdown by Terrence Frederick late in the third quarter.

This team features a potent offense and a soft defense. The Aggies rank 12th in the country in total offense (493.4 yards/game), including 17th in rushing (220.0 yards/game). Texas A&M is 97th in the land in total defense (424.4 yards/game), which is surprising because they are 7th against the run (76.8 yards/game). Opponents have been gashing them through the air as the Aggies are 117th in pass defense (347.6 yards/game).

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has played fairly well this season. He is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 1,327 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael have been a deadly 1-2 punch at running back, rushing for a combined 929 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Aggies feature three stud receivers in Ryan Swope (29 receptions, 413 yards, two TD), Jeff Fuller (27, 280, two TD) and Uzoma Nwachukwu (21, 249).

Baylor

The Bears have opened their 2011 campaign with a tremendous start, and they are now ranked inside the Top 25 due to their impressive performance thus far. Baylor (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) is just one point away from behind undefeated. They opened the season with three straight victories, but fell 35-36 on the road to Kansas State after blowing a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Bears were shut out in the final period.

Baylor responded well last week when they returned home to beat the Iowa State Cyclones 49-26. The Bears racked up 603 total yards and 37 first downs to improve to 4-0 at home this season. Robert Griffin III improved his case for a Heisman Trophy bid, throwing for 212 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 107 yards and a score. Terrance Ganaway finished with a career-high 200 rushing yards and three scores.

The Bears rank 3rd in the country in total offense (562.8 yards/game) and 4th in scoring offense (47.6 points/game). They are one of the few teams that can beat you on the ground and through the air. Baylor is 10th in rushing (239.2 yards/game) and 14th in passing (323.6 yards/game). Once again, the Bears lack a defense that can get them to the next level, though it has been improved this year. Baylor is 59th in total defense (374.0 yards/game) and 77th in scoring defense (28.2 points/game).

Griffin III is putting up video game-like numbers. He is completing 80.3 percent of his passes for 1,520 yards with 19 touchdowns and only one interception. Griffin III is also second on the team in rushing (280 yards, two TD). Ganaway has been a pleasant surprise all season, rushing for 536 yards (6.1/carry) and six touchdowns. Kendall Wright is having a Heisman-caliber season at receiver, catching 48 balls for 690 yards and eight touchdowns.

Betting Trends

Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Baylor, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings in this series. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings as well.

The Aggies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games, but 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

Baylor doesn’t have many trends working in their favor Saturday. The Bears are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.