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Bears Buccaneers Odds

The annual NFL game in London, England takes place in Week 7 Sunday as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers get set to do battle. Tampa played in this game two years ago when they were winless on the season, and rookie Josh Freeman made his debut. They fell 35-7 to the New England Patriots to drop to 0-7, but Freeman would lead the eventual 3-13 Buccaneers to a huge upset win over the Green Bay Packers in his first career start in their following game. The Bears and Bucs have split ten meetings since the turn of the century, and each of their last two meetings were decided in overtime. Tampa won the most recent head-to-head contest 27-24 at Soldier Field in 2008.

Taking a look at the odds, I find a line of Chicago -1 over Tampa Bay and a total set of 43.5 points.

Chicago

The Bears got back on track last week with a 39-10 home victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Chicago (3-3, 0-2 away) will be looking for their first road win of the season Sunday, though this is ultimately on a neutral field. Jay Cutler threw for 267 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings, and he has a streak of 74 consecutive passes without throwing an interception going.

The problem heading into this one is that Chicago is making headlines for off-the-field problems. Linebacker Lance Briggs and running back Matt Forte are reportedly unhappy about not getting new deals done, and safety Chris Harris requested a trade after he was benched Sunday. It will be interesting to see how these players respond the rest of the way.

Cutler has been sacked 19 times this season, which is the second-most of any quarterback in the NFL. He’s still having a solid season overall, completing 60.0 percent of his passes for 1,476 yards and eight touchdowns to four interceptions. Forte has rushed for 527 yards and a touchdown, while also registering a team-high 36 receptions for 381 yards and a score.

Devin Hester finished with 91 yards receiving last week, and he also returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown. That return TD gives him 16 for his career, which is an NFL record. Chicago ranks just 21st in total offense (327.8 yards/game) and a shocking 29th in total defense (397.3 yards/game). This stop unit is clearly getting up there in age, and they are suffering because of it.

Tampa Bay

Freeman led the Buccaneers to a 10-6 record last season, narrowly missing the playoffs. He has Tampa Bay (4-2, 3-1 home) sitting tied atop the NFC South in 2011 after winning four of their last five games. That includes a 26-20 victory over the New Orleans Saints last Sunday, a week after they were crushed 48-3 by the San Francisco 49ers.

Freeman threw for a season-high 303 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Earnest Graham ran for 109 yards on only 17 carries in place of the injured LeGarrette Blount. It’s uncertain whether Blount will return this week, but the Bucs feel like they are in good hands with Graham if he cannot go.

Tampa Bay has been sub-par thus far defensively, sitting 25th in the NFL in total defense (390.5 yards/game). They are most vulnerable against the pass, where they rank 26th in the league (276.0 yards/game). The defense could get a boost this week with the possible return of Gerald McCoy from an ankle injury.

The Bucs are very balanced offensively. They rank 15th in the league in total offense (350.5 yards/game), with 111.8 coming on the ground and 238.7 through the air. Freeman is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,459 yards and five touchdowns to six interceptions. Preston Parker leads the team in receiving with 19 grabs for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while tight end Kellen Winslow (27 receptions, 257 yards) is a close second.

Betting Trends

The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Chicago, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Technically, this counts as a home game for the Bucs. Tampa is 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.0 or less. However, the Bears are just 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.