2011 Belmont Stakes Horses, Field, & Lineup
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The speculation is finally over as to which horses will run in the 143rd Belmont Stakes. Using my resources, I have come up with a list of probable starters for this third leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday, June 11th. Before you can start making your picks and predictions on which horse is going to come out on top, you must first understand what each contender has to offer.
Only three of the last 12 Belmont winners paid single digits on a $2 wager, with those being Empire Maker ($6), Point Given ($4.70) and Afleet Alex ($4.20). That means the nine other winners were all at 4/1 odds or higher. Seven of those returned anywhere from $25.80 to $142.50.
This has easily been the most unpredictable of the three Triple Crown races with longshots coming through the most often. That doesn’t mean Animal Kingdom won’t win, it just means that you shouldn’t be surprised if a longshot takes down the Belmont again. Here is a look at the contenders for Saturday.
Probable starters for the 143rd Belmont Stakes
Animal Kingdom (3/1) – This horse has a lot going for him and there’s a good reason he is the odds-on favorite. Animal Kingdom has finished first or second in each of his six starts. He had a decisive win in the Kentucky Derby and came back from 18 lengths down to fall a half-length short at the Preakness Stakes. Trainer Graham Motion has had a winner 19 to 20 percent of his starts, including 16 of 52 graded stakes races over the past year. Eclipse Award-winning jockey John Velazquez enters the Belmont leading the nation with $6.8 million in earnings as well.
Brilliant Speed (20/1) – His seventh place finish in the Kentucky Derby was deceptive. Brilliant Speed had to go eight-wide and had he not got caught up in traffic, he would have likely had a much better finish. This horse has shown well by winning the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes which is no small feat. Trainer Tom Albertrani guided Bernardini to a Preakness victory, so he has proven he can win a classic. The one thing holding me back on this horse is the fact that he has never found the board in three career races on dirt, and he finished behind six horses in the Derby that are all likely to be running in the Belmont.
Isn’t He Perfect (45/1) – The sire of Pleasantly Perfect doesn’t have much going for him other than pedigree. Pleasantly Perfect has won multiple Grade 1 races at 1 ¼ miles, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That means Isn’t He Perfect is bred for distance. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for the Belmont is 106, and this horse has yet to top 87. In fact, his career-high Beyer was in the Preakness where he finished a disappointing ninth. His 13-2-0-1 career record is little to be desired as well.
Master of Hounds (10/1) – This horse has really been training to run the Belmont considering his two races this year came at distances of 1 3/16 and 1 ¼ miles. He was gaining late ground in both races, and came from 15th to fifth in the Kentucky Derby in his first start on dirt. This Irish-based horse owns a 8-1-3-1 career record, but his one win didn’t come against much competition.
Monzon (35/1) - The son of 1995 Belmont Stakes winner Thunder Gulch, Monzon was solid in his first two starts on dirt. He came from last to first to win the Count Fleet, defeating eventual Louisiana Derby winner, Pants On Fire. He also topped Wood Memorial runner-up, Arhur’s Tale in that same race. The problem is that Monzon has failed to class up in two graded stakes runs since, placing fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and sixth in the Peter Pan Stakes.
Mucho Macho Man (15/1) – This horse makes the switch from jockey Rajiv Maragh to the reigning Eclipse Award winner, Ramon Dominguez. Many believe this move is going to make all the difference at the Belmont Stakes. Mucho Macho Man has the most proven track record of any contender, posting a 10-2-3-3 career record. Despite so much experience, this horse is still the youngest in the field and won’t turn 3 years of age until four days after the Belmont. That’s why the big workload doesn’t scare me, and Mucho Macho Man actually still has room for improvement.
Nehro (9/2) – His second-place finish at the Kentucky Derby was more impressive because he had to come from post 18 and hung wide early. That race did not set up well for him at all and he actually made a premature move to go after front-running Shackleford. With better strategy in the Belmont, Nehro should be right there come race’s end. That’s especially the case considering he will be fresher than his main challengers after sitting out the Preakness. This horse has finished in first or second in four straight races.
Prime Cut (25/1) – This contender has finished third or better in six consecutive starts, opening some eyes in the horse racing industry. His win over the very talented Bind on March 26 was the fastest one-mile-70-yard race in the Fair Grounds meet this year. He certainly has the tactical speed, but his stamina remains unproven. When stepping up in class, he finished second in Lexington before fading to third in the Peter Pan stakes. While his record is hard to ignore, it appears that the competition simply hasn’t been there.
Ruler on Ice (25/1) – With two wins, two seconds and a third-place finish in his last five races, Ruler on Ice is certainly getting some much-deserved attention heading into the Belmont. One thing that makes you have to consider backing this horse is the fact that he was gaining late in his last three races. He went 1 1/16 miles twice and 1 1/8 miles once, meaning that the 1 ½-mile distance of the Belmont may just be what the doctor ordered. Concerning is the fact that he has not won a stakes race yet, and his 86 Beyer Speed Figure which led to a third-place finish in the Sunland Derby.
Santiva (15/1) – He was beaten by 5 ½ lengths in the Kentucky Derby en route to a sixth-place finish. That effort came despite running near the rail, which was not the place to be on Derby day. His pedigree suggests that the Belmont may be the perfect distance for him. While he has never cracked the triple-digit Beyer barrier, Santiva is getting the odds that make him worthy of a look Saturday.
Shackleford (5/1) – With the exception of a fifth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, Preakness winner Shackleford has improved his Beyer Speed Figures consistently since. He registered a 104 in the Preakness, meaning he’ll have the top figure heading into the Belmont. The one downfall is that this is a front-running horse. Over the last 26 years, only Da’Tara at odds of 38-to-1 was able to lead throughout to win the third leg of the Triple Crown.
Stay Thirsty (22/1) – Trainer Todd Pletcher won the 2007 Belmont with filly Rags to Riches. He believes Stay Thirsty has what it takes to bring him another victory Saturday. This horse won the Grade 3 Gotham in March, and was flattered to see the third-place finisher, Toby’s Corner, come back in his next start to win the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. This will be one of the freshest contenders in the field after skipping the Preakness, and he has experience running on the Belmont surface. While his pedigree suggests this distance will be ideal for him, Stay Thirsty has been defeated by 10 or more lengths in three of his four Grade 1 starts.
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