2011 Belmont Stakes Predictions
Written by Jack Jones
The Belmont Stakes will run for the 143rd time in 2011 when the horses hit the track on June 11th. This is the third leg of the Triple Crown, though there will be no winner this year. After Animal Kingdom took down the Kentucky Derby in style, Schackleford stole the show at the Preakness by holding off the Derby winner to get the victory. While this race won’t have the same prestige as it does when there is actually the possibility of a Triple Crown winner, horse racing fans and bettors alike will still enjoy it.
My Kentucky Derby predictions were off, but I certainly felt good after my Preakness Stakes predictions came out correct with Shackleford winning at 13-to-1. Now, it’s time to take my crack at picking the winner of the Belmont Stakes. I will give my picks on the win, place and show horses after using my resources to make the best educated guess possible. I am going to factor in the odds as well to do my best to find value.
There are several different factors you must use to come up with your predictions. The horse’s pedigree is a big one and also past performances is huge. With most of these Triple Crown races, you are able to see head-to-head results. Finding out how the contenders fared head-to-head can go a long way in predicting the outcome of their next race together. Looking at how horses have run at certain distances also helps, and that goes right along with past performances. There are many more factors to use in your handicapping, but these three would be a good place to start. Here are my picks for the 2011 Belmont Stakes.
Win: Animal Kingdom (3/1) – While I took a couple of underdogs in the first two Triple Crown races, I’m going with the favorite in the Belmont Stakes after what I’ve seen from Animal Kingdom. This has easily been the best horse to run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes with a first and second-place finish, respectively. He has proven that he’s very versatile after chasing down a slow pace in the Derby, and nearly winning in Pimlico despite a faster pace. Had he had another 1/16 mile to work with, he would have caught and passed Shackleford. He has placed in first or second in all six career races and my money says he’ll be the first to the finish line.
Place: Mucho Macho Man (15/1) – This horse has almost always been right around the money, and only a shoe falling off slowed him down in the Preakness. After a third-place finish at the Derby, Mucho Macho Man still managed to finish 6th in Pimlico despite losing a shoe. It was his worst-ever showing. This horse has found the board in eight of ten career races, winning twice. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be right there with Animal Kingdom down the stretch.
Show: Nehro (9/2) – After three straight runner-up finishes, Nehro is looking to finally break through in the Belmont. He comes in fresher than both Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man after passing up the Preakness. He finished second in the Derby and is now primed for perhaps the best race of his career. Aside from missing the board in his first two races, Nehro has finished in the top-two in four straight runs. There’s a reason why bettors are backing him, shrinking his odds in the process. I would not be surprised to see Nehro win Saturday, but I just don’t think he is as well-rounded a horse as Animal Kingdom.
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