Betting the Sweet 16
Written March 23, 2009 by Jack Jones
The 2009 NCAA Tournament now has their Sweet 16 set and expert handicapper Marc Lawrence is going to take a different angle at breaking down the teams that are left in the field. Specifically, he’ll be looking at the teams that are making a return appearance to this round after winning the first two games in the tournament a year ago as well. Are these teams building on their experience or do they play with a sense of entitlement that leaves those doing NCAA basketball betting on them wondering where their money went? Sign up at BetUS and get a $500 signup bonus on a $500 initial deposit!
Marc’s information goes back to 1991 and shows that teams making an appearance the following year in the Sweet 16 are 50-33 SU and 35-47 ATS in the third round of the tournament. To find the real valuable information though you have to look at the spread as favorites of more than six points are 28-2 SU and 18-12 ATS, while teams that are underdogs or favored by six or less have gone 22-31 and 17-35 ATS.
Last year there were five teams making a return appearace with Kansas at -12 winning 72-59), Memphis -4.5 covering 92-74, North Carolina at -8.5 winning 68-47, Tennessee not getting enough points with their 60-79 loss, and UCLA’s -12 being too much to cover their 88-78 win. That’s four of five winning SU and a profitable 3-2 ATS. The common denominator of the teams that won were the scoring margins. The only loser was Tennessee who had outscored opponents by 10 ppg compared to Louisville’s 24.
This year there are seven teams making a second straight Sweet 16. Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, Michigan State, North Carolina, Villanova, and Xavier were all here a year ago. Five of the teams have higher tournament scoring margins with Michigan State’s seven lower than Kansas’s 13.5 and Louisville’s 13.5 dead even with Arizona.
Last year also saw four of the five as No. 1 seeds, but this year’s group only has Louisville and North Carolina as top seeds. This is important because returnees that are No. 1 or No. 2 seeds are 40-11 SU and 26-25 ATS. If a top two seed scored more than 75 points in their last game to advance then their record improves to 27-4 SU and 19-12 ATS, including 23-1 SU and 17-7 ATS if the team is also coming off a double digit win.
So remember this information when making your college basketball picks this week. It seems that the top-rated teams who have played well so far in the tournament have the experience needed to push them over the top. You’ll still have to see if there is value with the NCAA basketball spreads posted or you can make it easy on yourself and sign up with one of our handicappers.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Sweet 16 Betting Odds
- Missouri vs Memphis: Sweet 16 Picks & Predictions
- Sweet Sixteen Impact Players for Friday Night
- Sweet 16 Bracket Contests
- Sweet 16 Picks & Predictions: Purdue vs Connecticut
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