Betting the 2012 Super Bowl Total
Written by Steve Janus
The majority of bets placed on Super Bowl 46 between the New England Patriots and New York Giants will be on who who wins the game, but many others will take their chances on exploiting the total. Our Super Bowl Odds show the total at 55-points. This is a very similar total to what we saw back when the Giants and Patriots faced off in the 2008 Super Bowl. In that game the total was set at 53.5 points, which really didn’t seem that high considering the two teams combined for 73-points in the regular season. It was far from a shootout in the Super Bowl, as the Giants won the game 17-14. What really stands out is 21 of those 31 points were scored in the 4th quarter.
For those of you looking to bet on the total, here is a quick look at what I believe will send the total over or under the set number of 55. I will also give my prediction on which side I think the final score will fall on.
Why the Total will go Over: Anytime you have two elite quarterbacks going head-to-head there is always the possibility of a high-scoring game, regardless of what two defenses step on the field. Last year the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers combined for 56 points, despite both teams having two of the best defenses in the regular season.
Tom Brady of the Patriots and Eli Manning of the Giants have had little trouble carving up secondaries this season. Brady helped the Patriots finish with the leagues 2nd-best passing offense, averaging 317.8 ypg, while Manning and the Giants finished 5th with 295.9 ypg.
While both the Giants and Patriots have stepped up their play on the defensive side of the ball, these two units were two of the worst against the pass this season. New England finished 31st out of 32 teams, giving up 293.9 ypg, while the Giants finished 29th, allowing 255.1 ypg. If the two offensive lines can protect their quarterback, it’s hard to see either defense consistently forcing the other team off the field.
There has been plenty of low scoring games in the Divisional and Conference Championship games, but it’s worth noting that all of those games were played outdoors. This game will be played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. This not only helps the passing game, but it should give the kickers a better chance of connecting on field goals if given the opportunity.
Why the Total will go UNDER: There have been seven previous Super Bowls with a total set at 50-points or more. Only two of those actually finished over the total. Anytime you give a team two weeks to prepare for an opposing offense, especially top notch coaches like Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin, the game ends up being more of a defensive battle.
Adding to that is the fact that both teams played each other in the regular season. In that game the two sides combined for 44 points, but 31 of those points were scored in the final period. Not only do both defenses have two weeks to prepare, but they have first-hand experience of what the other team likes to do offensively.
There is something to take out of how well both defenses have played coming into this game, The Patriots are giving up just 15.0 ppg in their two playoff games, while the Giants have allowed just 13.4 ppg over their last four. Unlike the regular season when you will find defenders taking a play off here and there, you can expect maximum effort on every snap in the Super Bowl.
*It is also worth nothing that the betting public loves to bet the over, which more times than not leads the oddsmakers to set the total higher than what they would if they had to set an honest number. However, I find it interesting that they they have set the total this high. The public remembers how they were killed on the total the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, and to no surprise I’m showing heavy action on the UNDER right now.
3 Responses to “Betting the 2012 Super Bowl Total”
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Thank’s jack that makes alot of sence , I like like the under in this game thank you for thee info Jack Jones.
Your last to nights were great picks , But I still like’d valpo last night big and I them again saturday. Tonight I like the lakers and celtics in a parlay, thank you Jack Jones.
I like the Giants big in this game, playing in peyton’s house eli will get the job done. The Giants will be the SUPER BOWL CHAMPS thank you Jack Jones.