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2012 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Predictions & Schedule

Widely considered the toughest conference in the country, the Big 12 was certainly entertaining to watch this season.  Perhaps the most entertaining season series in the entire country was that between Kansas and Missouri.  The Tigers beat the Jayhawks by a final of 74-71 at home in their first meeting on February 4th.  Kansas would have its revenge by erasing a huge second half deficit to top Missouri 87-86 in overtime on February 25th.  That victory gave the Jayhawks a share of the conference title, and they went on to win it outright with a road triumph over Oklahoma State.

Ten Big 12 teams will battle it out for an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament from Wednesday, March 7th through Saturday, March 10th.  This conference tournament will be held at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri.  Last year, top-seeded Kansas went on to beat No. 2 Texas in the championship by a final of 85-73.  The top five teams in this conference will all likely get a bid into the Big Dance no matter how they fare in the Big 12 Tournament. Texas is on the bubble and needs to win at least one game, while  the bottom four teams would all need to win this thing outright to earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Schedule/Predictions

First Round – Wednesday, March 7

Game 1 (Big 12 Network – 7:00 EST) – No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Texas A&M – Texas A&M finally started to get some key players healthy toward the end of the year.  This is certainly a sleeper in terms of the bottom four teams, and the one most likely to pull off an upset or two in this conference tournament.  This was a very tightly-contested season series as the home team won both meetings.  The Aggies beat the Sooners in overtime 81-75, but Oklahoma would have their revenge with a 65-62 triumph in their regular season finale.  I have Texas A&M bouncing back to win a close one.

Game 2 (Big 12 Network – 9:30 EST) – No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Texas Tech – This game should result in a lopsided victory for the Cowboys.  Texas Tech was by far the worst team in the Big 12 all season with a 1-17 conference record.  That included a 59-67 road loss to Oklahoma State and also a 63-80 setback at home to the Cowboys.  I expect the No. 7 seed to roll by double-digits in this first round contest.

Quarterfinals – Thursday, March 8

Game 3 (ESPN 2 – 12:30 EST) – No. 4 Baylor vs. No. 5 Kansas State -Kansas State is a very dangerous team in the Big 12 Tournament.  They saved their best basketball for last, including recent road wins over then-No. 10 Baylor and then-No. 3 Missouri.  This team can beat any team in the country on any given night, and it will certainly help that the Wildcats have a little bit of a home-court advantage here.  The road team won both meetings this year by a combined 3 points, but I believe that the home-court edge and better execution will get Kansas State past Baylor here.

Game 4 (ESPN 2 – 3:00 EST) – No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Texas A&M – If the Aggies would have played any other team in the second round, I would have been tempted to take them for another upset.  But Kansas is simply too strong, and I have the Jayhawks winning a closer game than anticipated here.  Texas A&M actually played the Jayhawks pretty tough in both regular season meetings, staying within 10 points in each loss.  Kansas and senior Tyshaun Taylor (17.2 PPG, 4.9 APG) will make the necessary plays down the stretch to come away with a victory.

Game 5 (Big 12 Network – 7:00 EST) – No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 7 Oklahoma State - The Cowboys actually handed the Tigers one of their four losses this season, coming away with a 79-72 home victory on January 25th.  Missouri would have their revenge in a big way in their second meeting, beating Oklahoma State 83-65 on February 15th in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  I don’t look for the Cowboys to put up much of a fight here as they are simply too reliant on undersized senior Keiton Page (16.2 PPG) to carry the bulk of their scoring load.

Game 6 (Big 12 Network – 9:30 EST) – No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Texas -Iowa State is going to hand Texas their most crushing loss of the season.  These young Longhorns really need a win here to solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament, but I believe that youth and inexperience will do them in with so much at stake here.  The Cyclones have been one of the most underrated teams in the Big 12 all season.  They finally got ranked this week at No. 25 in the country after a victory over then-No. 10 Baylor in their season finale.  The home team won both regular season meetings by single-digits, and I have the Cyclones prevailing by the narrowest of margins here.

Semifinals – Friday, March 9

Game 7 (Big 12 Network/ESPNU – 7:30 EST) – No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Kansas State -Kansas State did lose both regular season meetings to Kansas, but I have them getting some nice payback with the biggest upset of the conference tournament.  Head coach Frank Martin is very tough in these revenge spots, and he’ll have his players ready to go against a Jayhawks team that could be primed for a letdown after sweeping the season series with their in-state rivals.  The Wildcats play tough defense, which gives them a chance to win every time they take the floor.  I believe they find a way to get it done.

Game 8 (Big 12 Network/ESPNU – 10:00 EST) – No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 3 Iowa State - The Tigers won a pair of close games over the Cyclones in the regular season.  They won on the road 76-69 on January 11th in their first meeting.  Iowa State appeared ready to pull off an upset in their second meeting after leading Missouri down in Columbia almost the entire way.  But it wasn’t to be as the Tigers would prevail 78-72 in the end.  It would take almost a perfect game for ISU to win this one, and I just don’t think they have it in them.  Missouri will win another close one to advance to the championship.

Championship Game – Saturday, March 10

Game 9 (ESPN – 6:00 EST) – No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 5 Kansas State - The Wildcats have already proven they can beat the Tigers this season.  They handed Missouri two of their four losses this year, prevailing 75-59 at home, and 78-68 on the road.  To beat such a quality team by double-digits twice says a lot, and to limit the Tigers to an average of only 64.5 points/game in the process is a testament to their ability to defend.  This is simply a good match-up for the Wildcats, and I believe they win the Big 12 title this season with a narrow victory over the Tigers.