2011 Big 12 Football Predictions
Written by Jack Jones
Nebraska and Colorado bolted last summer with the Cornhuskers making the move to the Big Ten and the Buffaloes shifting to the new Pac-12. The rumors started shortly thereafter, with Texas, Oklahoma and a few other teams possibly leaving as well. Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe saved the conference with a last-second pitch that kept the Big 12 together. Gone is the conference championship game along with the North and South divisions. The new plan is for a round-robin schedule that will have every team squaring off against one another.
Oklahoma won the Big 12 title last year after erasing a 17-0 deficit in the championship game to beat Nebraska 23-20. It was the seventh Big 12 title for head coach Bob Stoops. The conference sent 30 players to the NFL Draft for a second straight year, but 11 of those came from Colorado and Nebraska. Even more surprising is that two players from both Baylor and Colorado went in the first round. Last season saw five teams finish inside the Top 20 in the final polls, including Oklahoma State which produced a school-record 11 wins. While eight teams went to bowl games, the conference finished with just a 3-5 record. Here is a look at how the 2011 season will play out.
BIG 12 PREDICTIONS
1. Oklahoma – The Sooners are sure to be #1 in the AP preseason poll, and for good reason. This team returns more talent than not only every team in the Big 12, but in the country. They do have to play Florida State on the road, but their conference road schedule is very manageable. They should make easy work of Baylor, Kansas and Kansas State before having to travel to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State in their regular season finale on December 3rd. By that time they will likely already have the conference title wrapped up, and should be playing for a trip to the national championship game.
2. Texas A&M – The Aggies return more starter than any other team in the conference. They bring back 18 starters with ten on offense and eight on defense, plus they return 80.3% of their letterman as well. Only six of their top 50 players from last year won’t be returning. While they have to face Oklahoma on the road, they get their other two biggest competitors in Texas and Oklahoma State at home. This is easily the best team that Mike Sherman has had to work with, and it should result in a double-digit win season.
3. Texas – Mack Brown suffered through his worst season since taking over in Austin, a 5-7 campaign that he would like to put behind him real quickly. The only way to do that is to bounce back in 2011, and the Longhorns may be able to do just that. Their -12 turnover margin killed them last year, but even with only 12 returning starters, this team should be able to improve upon that mark simply by taking care of the ball. You have to remember that Colt McCoy threw 18 interceptions in his sophomore season, but bounced back to have a tremendous junior campaign. Texas is hoping for the same kind of rebound from Garrett Gilbert, who threw 17 picks as a sophomore last year. Their defense appears to be the best in the conference, which will only help out the offense.
4. Oklahoma State – The Cowboys were one of the biggest surprises in the country last year, posting their first-ever 11-win campaign. With 14 returning starters including QB Brandon Weeden and top wideouts Justin Blackmon and Josh Cooper, OSU is sure to be ranked in the Top 10 in the preseason polls. What holds me back from picking them to finish any higher in the Big 12 is the fact that they have the most difficult schedule in the conference. While they get Oklahoma at home, they will have to face the rest of the top half of the league on the road. Trips to Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas Tech will make it nearly impossible for the Cowboys to win the conference.
5. Missouri – While the Tigers will have 15 starters returning from a 10-win team, Missouri has to replace all-everything quarterback Blaine Gabbert. James Franklin is likely the guy to get the job, and he will have all of the same weapons back that Gabbert had to worth with. He’s going to get tested right away as Missouri’s first two road games are at Arizona State and at Oklahoma. Not to mention he’ll have to try and find a way to win at Texas A&M, Kansas State and Baylor. This road schedule with an inexperienced quarterback will prevent the Tigers from breaking through into the top four of the Big 12.
6. Baylor – With 14 returning starters and their best playmakers back, the Baylor Bears should only be better in 2011. Baylor finally broke through and went to their first bowl game since 1994 with a 7-6 season. The problem is the fact that the Bears only beat one team with a winning record, and that was Kansas State (7-6). QB Robert Griffin III is back along with his five top pass-catchers from a year ago, each of which has 42 receptions or more. The offense is going to be explosive, but the Bears only return five starters from a defense that allowed a whopping 469 total yards per game.
7. Kansas State – Head coach Bill Snyder has done an excellent job in bringing in JUCO talent along with many very highly touted transfers this offseason. RB Bryce Brown is going to fill Daniel Thomas’ shoes nicely, and MLB Arthur Brown will be a beast on the other side of the ball. With more experience back than last year’s 7-6 team with 13 returning starters, the Wildcats should easily see the postseason again. I can’t pick them any higher when they lose their quarterback and two of their top three receivers, though.
8. Texas Tech – Replacing Mike Leach has been no easy task for Tommy Tuberville, who runs a different offense and uses much different coaching techniques than his predecessor. Even with 14 returning starters from a team that went 8-5, it will be tough for this 2011 team to match last year’s win total. That’s because the offense loses all of its top playmakers. Taylor Potts is no longer around after completing 67% of his passes with 35 touchdowns in 2010. WR’s Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis have moved on after combining for 161 receptions and 25 touchdowns last season. Top rusher Baron Batch has also graduated. While the defense should be improved, the offense is no longer going to be as explosive as it was in the Leach days.
9. Iowa State - Second-year head coach Paul Rhodes has been an overachiever in his first two years on the job. He took over a team in 2009 that was left in shambles after the departure of Gene Chizik, and guided them to a bowl game and a 7-6 season. The Cyclones just missed out on a bowl last year with a 5-7 mark. This does have the makings of another rebuilding season though, as ISU returns the fewest starters in the conference with 12. They lose their starting QB, starting RB and top two receivers from a year ago. Plus, the Cyclones have to play five Big 12 road games, and three of their home games come against Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.
10. Kansas - It was a very forgettable first season for Turner Gill, whose Jayhawks were outscored by 27.4 points per game and outgained by 219 yards per contest en route to a 3-9 season. They head into the fall in a lot better shape and should be improved with 15 returning starters. Kansas does lose 24 letterman though, which is the most in the conference. They better take advantage of winnable home games early with McNeese State and Northern Illinois, because there is no guarantee they are going to get a victory in the Big 12 considering they have to play Iowa State on the road.
More Resources:
Got something to say?
- Buy Jack's Picks
- Sports Picks
- Free Football Picks
- Football Betting
- Football Betting Forum
- Article Archives
- College Football Picks
- NFL Picks
- NBA Picks
- NCAA Basketball Picks
- Baseball Picks
- NHL Picks
- College Bowl Picks
- Super Bowl Picks
- College Football Lines
- NFL Spreads
- NBA Spreads
- NCAA Basketball Lines
- Baseball Lines
- NHL Lines
- College Bowl Odds
- Super Bowl Odds
- Betting Trends
- Gambling
- Handicappers
- Handicapping
- Matchups
- Odds Explained
- Predictions
- Standings
- Sportsbooks
- Weekly Picks
- Heisman Odds