2011 Big Ten Football Predictions


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The 2011 Big Ten Conference will be as wide open as it has been in several years as there appears to be no dominant squad this season. This will be a season of firsts in many respects as the Big Ten expands to 12 teams with the addition of Nebraska, has two divisions for the first time in its history (the poorly named Legends and Leaders), plays its first conference championship game, and could see a new champion for the first time in 6 seasons. Ohio State has been rocked by controversy all off season, including the resignation of head coach Jim Tressel and the defection of Terrelle Pryor at QB.

The season will also feature new coaches at Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota. Nebraska will be facing an adjustment to the Big Ten’s style of play, but enter with a talented program and seem to be on an upward trend both on the field and in recruiting. They will be faced with a brutal schedule, however, including conference games at Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State, plus face 7 conference teams that played in bowl games last season.

Ohio State has faced a rough off-season and has dominated the news. So far no announcement has been made regarding the other 4 players who are facing a 5 game suspension, and at least 9 current Buckeyes have been linked to NCAA infractions. Co-defensive Coordinator Luke Fickell has been named to replace Tressel in the interim, and OSU faces a hearing for infractions in August. The status of several key players may not come to light until August- including Posey, Herron, Adams and Thomas. Other players have been implicated in the merchandise for cash, tattoos, etc. issues and could face suspensions similar to North Carolina last season. Ohio State still recruits incredibly well and should still be among the leagues’ most talented teams.

Wisconsin would seem ripe to capitalize on OSU’s failures but will have to replace the steady Scott Tolzien.  As an option, the Badgers may latch onto college free agent Russell Wilson, a very talented QB from N.C. State. If they don’t manage to grab Wilson, they will likely turn the keys over to sophomore Jon Budmayr, who has little playing time under his belt.

Besides Luke Fickell, the Big Ten will welcome coaches Kevin Wilson (Indiana/former Oklahoma O.C.), Brady Hoke (Michigan/ former SDSU HC, Ball State HC and Michigan assistant), and Jerry Kill (Minnesota/ SIU and NIU). Of the three, Hoke inherits the best program, with a lot of returning talent on offense. Wilson is the latest in a long line of coaches trying to change the culture at Indiana, but has a depleted roster and will have a drastic talent drop coming from a likely national title contender at Oklahoma to team with talent issues at both the offense and defense. Kill has been a turnaround specialist and knows that the Minnesota job won’t be an overnight fix, but may have the plan and coaching acumen to turn the Gophers into a respectable program again.

Marquee Out of Conference Games:

September 3 Minnesota at USC

September 10 Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Iowa at Iowa State

Wisconsin vs. Oregon State

Penn State v. Alabama

September 17 Iowa vs. Pittsburgh

Nebraska vs. Washington

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Ohio State at Miami

October 1 Purdue vs. Notre Dame

Quick and Dirty Preseason Picks and Analysis:

Leaders

1 Wisconsin: The Badgers are having their best stretch of football ever, even better than the heights Barry Alvarez reached in the late 90s and early 2000s. Brett Bielema is looking to replace the steady QB Scott Tolzien and may have found one in former N.C. State QB Russell Wilson, who is looking for a new home. The Badgers lose two quality lineman and 1000 yard rusher John Clay, but may be better off without Clay as James White and Montee Ball is a devastating TB combo. The Badgers’ most important off season acquisition was most likely keeping O.C. Paul Chryst. The Badgers also lose DE J.J. Watt but have eight experienced returners including gaining back talented LB Chris Borland from injury. The Badgers have 3 returning starters on the d-line and experience in the secondary as well. The Wisconsin schedule includes a Big Ten opener at night in Camp Randall to welcome Nebraska to conference play, as well as two tough road contests versus Michigan State and Ohio State. Wisconsin could be favored in 11 games this season and possibly 12 depending how things look going into the Ohio State game.

2 Penn State: This Penn State team lost a ton of players to injury last season (and in the spring), but is poised to trot out one of the strongest defenses in the Big Ten. They are deep at every level despite losing DE Massaro for the season. PSU returns at least 16 players who made significant contributions to the defensive side of the ball, and will likely have the best linebacking unit in the conference along with a secondary that is legitimately 7-deep. The offense has two key question marks- QB and offensive line. No starter was named after the spring, and talented sophomore Rob Bolden could still transfer, leaving the job to Matt McGloin by default. PSU lost their best lineman in G Wisniewski along with C Klopacz and were not a dominating unit last season. However they have several options along the interior and return talented guard Troutman. PSU has a solid stable of TBs led by Silas Redd who is poised for a breakout season and may have the deepest stable of receivers in the league headlined by the 6’5 Derrick Moye. PSU‘s schedule includes 3 tough road games- Northwestern, and Ohio State and Wisconsin to close the season. PSU gets Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska at home. They do close out the season with a tough 5 game stretch.

3. Ohio State: I am banking on more suspensions and fallout from the NCAA investigation into the program. OSU entered the season green at QB for the expected suspension of Pryor and will now likely turn to a true freshman Braxton Miller at the QB position. Ohio State could be facing a similar situation to UNC last season with key player’s eligibility unknown for all of September. OSU always has a ton of talent and they do possess a very solid offensive line, a nice group of tailbacks and Stoneburner returns at tight end, but this thin group at wide receiver will be without the leader Posey for at least the first 5 games of the season and already lost Dane Sazenbacher to graduation. The Buckeye defense should be salty and will likely need to be. They return only 4 starters on defense but played a lot of guys and come into the season with experienced players ready to step into larger roles. This should still be among the best D-lines in the league if not the nation and had a young secondary look very sharp during the spring. OSU has three tough games to open up conference play- Michigan State and back to back road games against Nebraska and Illinois. They have a bye before hosting Wisconsin and close out the season with back to back games against Penn State and at Michigan. Despite all the commotion and the loss of (at least) Tressel and Pryor OSU should be a favorite in at least 10 games.

4. Illinois: The Fighting Illini were hit hard by early entrants to the NFL draft, losing key defensive playmakers Martez Wilson and Corey Luiget along with TB MiLeshoure. They return 3 solid offensive linemen, QB Scheelhaase coming off an impressive freshman campaign, and have solid depth at WR, TB, and O-line. The defense returns 8 contributors including 6 starters and should play faster in the second season of D.C. Vic Koenning’s season. The Illini have an incredible schedule and could jump into the mix for the Leaders title with solid play from both units- but have never gone to back to back bowls under Zook.

5. Purdue: Purdue returns a lot of players on both sides of the ball including getting two talented offensive skill players back from injury, but have questions at QB on offense. The Boilermakers need to replace the incredible production of Ryan Kerrigan (12.5 sacks, 70 tackles) on the defensive side of the ball but return his three linemates, two linebackers, and the entire secondary. Purdue has a very difficult schedule this season including road games at Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin, and after opening with Minnesota face a brutal 6 game stretch including the back half of at Wisconsin, and home games versus Ohio State and Iowa.

6. Indiana: New coach Kevin Wilson steps into a rough situation going from one of the most talent rich teams in the nation to one of the most barren in the BCS conferences. Indiana hasn’t named a starter at QB and although they have some solid skill talent in Belcher, Wilson, Willis and Bolser they have very little depth and are switching offensive systems. Defensively the Hoosiers have some solid depth at nearly every position and return 6 starters along with several other players with solid PT. The Hoosiers face an incredibly tough conference slate facing 7 bowl teams in a row including Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State on the road.

Legends:

1. Northwestern: I understand this will be a surprise pick, but bear with me. Dan Persa is the most talented college QB in the conference and all indications are that he will be 100% healthy for the season. Northwestern returns 15 experienced players including 6 offensive linemen to the offensive side of the ball. Northwestern boasts 137 career offensive line starts which bodes well for a team that wants to run the ball more effectively. Northwestern has two difference makers in Ebert and Dunsmore in this offense and can rely on the legs of Persa to get them open. Northwestern really struggled defensively to end the year but some of that blame falls on an ineffective offense that kept the D on the field and put them in bad spots after the loss of Persa. Northwestern returns 7 starters on defense and 6 other players with solid experience. This unit will likely improve and will benefit from a good to great offense holding the ball and scoring points. Northwestern has three tough Big Ten road games including Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska but if they can negotiate a tough 4 game opening stretch the back half includes Indiana and Minnesota.

2. Nebraska: The Huskers enter the Big Ten confident on both sides of the ball and return enigmatic QB Taylor Martinez, TB Rex Burkhead and talented pass catchers Brandon Kinnie and Kyler Reed. Nebraska should be solid along the offensive line as well returning 3 players with starting experience. Nebraska will be led by a very good defense, however, as they return 3 starting defensive lineman, 3 players with a lot of experience in the secondary and three experienced linebackers. Nebraska’s star power is on this side of the ball as Crick, David and Dennard (DT, LB, and CB respectively) will all be scouted heavily by the NFL. Nebraska will likely take a hit on special teams losing all-world Alex Henry, who was incredibly effective as both kicker and punter. Nebraska has the toughest schedule in the Big Ten opening at Wisconsin (night game) followed by a home game with Ohio State. They get a two week breather with a bye and Minnesota but then face a grueling 5 game stretch including away games Penn State and Michigan and the season ender versus Iowa in what is sure to be the beginning of a great rivalry.

3. Iowa: Iowa loses a ton of talent- QB, TB, WR, TE, OG, 3 D-lineman, 2 LBs, and 2 multi year starting safeties. They do return one of the best offensive lines in the Big Ten that is legitimately 7 deep. 5 players return with starting experience including both tackles (JR Riley Reiff will likely by a high draft pick) and the center. They return their most talented TB in Marcus Coker (33 carries 219 yards vs. Missouri) and WR Marcus McNutt and have several players looking to assume roles including James Vandenberg at QB who was hit or miss filling in for an injured Stanzi in ’09. Iowa’s defense will be a work in progress as they are replacing 7 starters but have some intriguing talent in the back seven including LBs Tyler Nielsen (missed last 5 games) and James Morris along with Shaun Prater at CB and Micah Hyde manning either a FS or corner spot. Iowa has two solid returners on the defensive line and several young players were thrown into the fire in Iowa’s disappointing 7-5 season. Iowa’s special teams should take a step up from several critical mistakes that contributed to losses versus Arizona and Wisconsin. Iowa’s schedule sets up nicely as they visit Penn State and grab Northwestern at home followed by possible momentum builders Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan. Iowa closes the season with two tough games Michigan State and at Nebraska with a visit to Purdue squeezed in.

4. Michigan State: MSU returns a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball including QB Cousins, loads of talent at each skill position but questions along the offensive line. They return 12 solid contributors from last season’s team. Michigan State has a very solid defensive line featuring DT Worthy and is at least 6 deep. Chris Norman returns at linebacker but MSU must replace the ultra-talented and productive duo of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. MSU loses the steady Marcus Hyde and the enigmatic Chris L. Rucker but return four players who played significant roles last season. MSU may have the best kicker in the Big Ten and have dangerous return units. MSU’s schedule is an issue however. They open the season at Ohio State and face Michigan, @ Nebraska, and Wisconsin after a bye in week 2. If they manage to negotiate that gauntlet they are left with tough games at Iowa and Northwestern.

5. Michigan: Michigan returns a lot of solid players on both sides of the ball but are undergoing scheme changes for at least the 2nd time in 3 seasons (more defensively). Brady Hoke brings hope and an understanding of the coaches’ role off the field but has a team built for Big East football in a northern power football conference. If Denard Robinson successfully transitions to life under center and Michigan can remain healthy up front this offense could come close to last season’s production. Michigan has a lot of players vying for a spot at TB and a deep and talented receiver group (including TE Kevin Koger). They return 10 players with starting experience. Defensively Michigan is transitioning to a scheme that may fit their talent better but this was a rough unit last season. They return 8 starters and many players at nearly every spot who played last season. The secondary should tighten up under the tutelage of D.C. Greg Mattison formerly of Florida and the Baltimore Ravens. There is talent on this side of the ball but it remains to be seen if they can gel and be a solid unit. Michigan follows an easy opener with back to back road games at Northwestern and Michigan State. They close the season with road games at Iowa and Illinois followed by home games versus Nebraska and Ohio State- likely setting up a fade at the end of the season for three years in a row.

6. Minnesota: This is a total rebuild job for Jerry Kill who is installing a new offense and lacks talent on both sides of the ball to compete. Minnesota has some experienced players returning on the offensive line and will hand the keys to MarQuies Gray. The Gophers have questionable depth at QB, WR, and OL. The Gophers return nearly every significant defensive player to a defense that really struggled to stop opponents last season. They have 8 starter back but no real thread along the defensive line. The Gophers will likely be underdogs in every game and have tough home games against Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. Purdue is the only team the Gophers face that missed a bowl last season.

Conference Championship Game Prediction: Wisconsin versus Northwestern

Big Ten Football Predictions by Team
Illinois Football Predictions Indiana Football Predictions
Ohio State Football Predictions Penn State Football Predictions
Purdue Football Predictions Wisconsin Football Predictions
Iowa Football Predictions Michigan Football Predictions
Michigan State Football Predictions Minnesota Football Predictions
Nebraska Football Predictions Northwestern Football Predictions

 

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions WAC Football Predictions

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