Bills Chargers Odds
The San Diego Chargers host the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 NFL Sunday in what is basically an elimination game. Both teams have slim chances of making the playoffs as it is, and the loser will all but be eliminated. These teams have split six meetings since the turn of the century. Buffalo was victorious 23-14 at home in their most recent meeting in 2008.
Taking a look at the odds, I find a line of San Diego -6.5 over Buffalo with a total set of 47.5 points.
The Chargers opened the season 4-1 and appeared to be well on their way to reclaiming the AFC West title. But six straight losses later, and they found themselves in desperate need of a victory coming into last week. San Diego would take care of business with an emphatic 38-14 road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Thanks to an Oakland loss on Sunday, the Chargers are now just two games back in the division, trailing both the Raiders and Broncos by that margin.
Philip Rivers finally got on track against Jacksonville, completing 22 of 28 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan Matthews rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries, and Mike Tolbert added 24 rushing yards and a score. Malcolm Floyd caught four balls for 108 yards and a touchdown, and Vincent Jackson had four receptions for 72 yards and a score as well. Their defense limited the Jaguars to a respectable 306 total yards.
San Diego ranks 6th in the NFL in total offense (389.9 yards/game) and 12th in total defense (334.6 yards/game). Rivers is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 3,505 yards with 19 touchdowns, though he has thrown a career-high 17 interceptions. Matthews is having a breakout sophomore campaign. He leads the team with 829 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while also catching 39 balls for 386 yards. Jackson is their leading receiver with 48 grabs for 897 yards and eight scores.
After a surprising 4-1 start, the Bills have been in an absolute free fall. Buffalo (5-7, 1-5 away) has lost five straight games to play themselves right out of playoff contention. They have no shot at winning the division, and they trail four teams by exactly two games for the final wild card spot. They would need to win out and get some help to make the postseason. The Bills are coming off a disheartening 23-17 home loss to the Tennessee Titans a week after barely losing at New York 28-24.
Buffalo actually outgained Tennessee 379-317 for the game, but they committed two costly fumbles while not taking the ball away once. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a solid game, completing 29 of 46 passes for 288 yards with one touchdown. Their defense could not slow down Chris Johnson, who ran wild for 153 yards and two scores. Their two fumbles on offense led directly to 10 points for the Titans.
The Bills rank 14th in total offense (348.2 yards/game) and 22nd in total defense (363.2 yards/game). Their offense just hasn’t been the same without leading rusher Fred Jackson, who has missed the past two game and will be out for the season with a fractured right fibula. Fitzpatrick has been slumping since signing his lucrative new deal to remain in Buffalo. He is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,837 yards with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Steve Johnson leads all receivers with 59 receptions for 674 yards and six touchdowns, though he has dropped several crucial passes throughout the season.
The Chargers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0, but just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Bills are 31-14-1 ATS in their last 46 vs. a team with a losing record, and 10-4 ATS 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. However, Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.