Bills Chiefs Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will kickoff their seasons at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are coming off a remarkable turnaround in 2010. They went from last in the AFC West in 2009 (4-12) to division winners in 2010 (10-6). The were crushed by the Ravens 7-30 in the playoffs, but believe they ready to have an even bigger season in 2011. For a third consecutive season the Bills finished last in the AFC East with an overall record of 4-12, but they were a much better team than their record indicates. Buffalo had seven losses by 10-points or less. One of those was a 10-13 overtime loss at Kansas City.

Oddsmakers don’t seem to think the Chiefs will struggle with the Bills this time around, as Kansas City comes in favored by 6-points over Buffalo with the total set at 40.0 points.

Buffalo Bills:

The Bills surprised some people by not going after a quarterback in the draft, but they believe they have a very underrated starting quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who stepped into the starting role and threw for 3,000 yards with 23 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. If Fitzpatrick can show some nice improvement in 2011, mainly cut down on his turnovers, the Bills could be a lot better than people think on the offensive side of the ball.

They got rid of wide out Lee Evans, who was a big disappointment last season. However, they feel like they have an emerging star in Steve Johnson, who easily led the team with 82 receptions for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns. Teams will be a little more prepared for Johnson this season, which means another receiver needs to step up and help out the passing game.

Buffalo has another talented player in running back Fred Jackson. While Jackson doesn’t get a lot of credit, he rushed for 927 yards and scored seven touchdowns on a team that won just four games. Jackson will be the feature back to start the season, but they are really hoping that 2010 first round pick C.J. Spiller will be a bigger factor offensively in his second season.

Defensively the Bills continue to draft for a 3-4 defense, and I expect the 3-4 to be the main defense they run this season. They used their first round pick on Alabama 3-4 defensive end Marcell Dareus, who figures to really help this team against the run. Buffalo finished dead last against the run in 2010, allowing 169.6 ypg.

Kansas City Chiefs:

The Chiefs huge turnaround in 2010 was a result of the league’s top rushing attack. Behind Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones the Chiefs averaged 164.2 ypg on the ground. The plan of attack doesn’t figure to change in 2011, and could quite possibly be even better. Kansas City has added in talented fullback Le’Ron McClain and are expected to use second-year back Dexter McCluster a lot more this season.

What the Chiefs need to remain one of the top teams in the AFC is continued improvement from quarterback Matt Cassel and the passing game. Cassel really shined in his second season in Kansas City, throwing for 3,116 yards with 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions. Cassel did struggle late in the year, and wasn’t all that impressive in the preseason.

The Chiefs used their first round pick on wide out Jonathan Baldwin and signed former Arizona wide out Steve Breaston. These two should take some of the defensive attention off Pro Bowl wide out Dwayne Bowe, who caught an NFL-best 15 touchdowns in 2010. Kansas City did suffer a big loss in the preseason, as starting tight end Tony Moeaki was lost for the year with a knee injury.

Defensively the Chiefs are really expecting big things out of talented young unit. They finally got a true 3-4 nose tackle in Kelly Gregg, and are very excited about rookie outside linebacker Justin Houston. What really makes the Chiefs defense special is second-year safety Eric Berry, who made the Pro Bowl in his rookie season.

Betting Trends:

The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings when these two teams face off in Kansas City.

Need some help beating the odds this week? Check out what Steve Janus has to offer in his week 1 NFL picks.

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