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Bills at Jets Free NFL Picks

Written October 15, 2009 by John Ryan

John Ryan nailed another 10* Monday Night Football winner with Miami as they truly exposed the holes in the Jets defense and he will continue to dominate this weekend with his NFL picks. It wasn’t just the Wild Cat either that took its’ toll on that defense that granted THREE lead changing touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Short week for planning and a bit of adversity for this Jets team may offer the strongest opportunity for Buffalo to acquire some much needed respect with a solid display in New Jersey. The current NFL spreads show that the Jets are 9.5 point favorites over the Bills with the total set at 37.5. If you are going to do any NFL betting this weekend then take a look at the $500 in FREE money being offered to our readers by BetUS!

Miami did a solid job on nose tackle Kris Jenkins. He commands double teams on most every running play, but what Miami did was to use zone blocking to get him going laterally. This gave the backs cut back lanes or plainly solid gaps in the center of the line. The Bills have been awful in protecting their QB on 3rd and long spots. No question they will see what the Dolphins did to get the ground game in high gear and that will keep them out of third and long situations. This will also allow Edwards additional time by utilizing play action and those are the situations that can get TO in man coverage and high percentage pass opportunities.

The Jets are averaging 4.1 rushing yards per carry, but is not a true reflection of the running game. They had 38 yards rushing on 2 fake punts against the Dolphins and they have practiced a sizeable array of gadget and reverse plays. They are NOT a dominant running team between the tackles. With injuries to the Buffalo LB starters, the Jets will certainly try to run the ball between the tackles, but I do not see it being effective and the Buffalo defensive perimeter has done a great job remaining disciplined in pursuit.

Mix the fundamental research with an Ai Simulator grading of 3 stars and you have the likelihood for a very tight game. AiS shows a 70% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or less points. Here is a supporting system that has gone 109-59 for 65% winners since 1983. That’s a 26-year track record of consistent winners broken out by a 47-27 10-year mark and a 26-15 5 year mark. Play on road teams that are bad teams being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game after a loss by 6 or less points. Yes, this is new coaching, but this is the first 2 game losing streak for coach Ryan. Note that the Jets are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bills.

John Ryan has now hit 71% ATS winners over the past 52 premium college football picks. I am hitting 60% winners in the NHL and all of the plays have been dogs so far this year. Plus, he won his 15* NLDS Game of the Year play. He went 15-5 in the 2008 MLB playoffs so his soundest opportunities are still yet to come.

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1 Comment

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One Response to “Bills at Jets Free NFL Picks”

Chris Meyer on October 15th, 2009 11:25 am

There is no way the Bills stay competitive in this game.

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