Bills Patriots Line

Written by Steve Janus

The New England Patriots will try and lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC when they host the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the regular season. A lot of people thought this game would have huge implication on who would win the AFC East after Buffalo upset the Patriots 34-31 in week 3. That isn’t the case at all. New England secured their third straight division title with a 27-24 win at home over the Dolphins. The Patriots are a full six games ahead of the Bills, who ended a seven game losing streak with a surprising 40-14 win over the Broncos last week. Buffalo is just 3-9 since that win over New England.

Taking a look at the week 17 NFL spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Patriots favored by 11-points over the Bills with the total set at 51 points.

Buffalo Bills:

The fact that Buffalo got off to such a great start, only added to the disappointment this team has had to deal with over the second half of the season. A lot of people expected the Bills to not show up against the Broncos. Not only did they beat Denver, they embarrassed the AFC West-leading Broncos.

Offensively the Bills played a pretty solid game, but it was defense and special teams that made this game a blowout. Leodis McKelvin returned a punt 80yards for a touchdown, Jairus Byrd and Spencer Johnson both returned a turnover for a touchdown, and Dave Rayner connected on four field goals.

One player who did have a big offensive game was running back C.J. Spiller, who finished with 111 yards and a touchdown on just 16 carries. The Bills as a team rushed for 160 yards against the Broncos.

Ryan Fitzpatrick added 196 passing yards, but was just 15 of 27 and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second time in three games.

The offense should have no trouble racking up yards against the Patriots defense. New England comes into this game ranked dead last against the pass (294.7 ypg) and 17th against the run (117.5 ypg). They are allowing a whopping 412.1 total yards of offense a game, which is the worst mark of any defense since the 1981 baltimore Colts allowed 424.6 ypg.

New England Patriots:

The Patriots didn’t look like the best team in the AFC in the first half of their game against the Dolphins last week. New England was shutout 0-17 over the first two quarters. Tom Brady and the offense got things figured out in the second half, as they scored 27 unanswered points before Buffalo finally got on the board with a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Brady was just 7 of 19 for 87 yards and was sacked three times in the first half. However, he would get things figured out and complete 20 of 27 for 220 yards and a touchdown in the final two periods. Brady also scored on a one-yard sneak.

Wes Welker added to his already impressive season with 12 catches for 138 yards, while Rob Gronkowski hauled in seven passes for 78 yards.

One player worth keeping an eye on this week and heading into the playoffs is rookie running back Stevan Ridley. Over the last two weeks, Ridley has seen the majority of the carries, he had 65 yards on 11 attempts two weeks ago against the Broncos and 64 on 13 carries against the Dolphins. Not impressive numbers by running back standards, but pretty big when you consider how much the Patriots throw the football.

New England outgained the Bills 495 to 448 in total yards back in week 3, but the Patriots uncharacteristically turned the ball over four times (four interceptions by Brady). I look for the Patriots to have another huge game offensively, but I don’t think we will see Brady throw four interceptions. Brady has 16 touchdowns to just one pick over his last seven games.

Betting Trends:

Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 17.

New England is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 17.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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