MLB Odds & Picks: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Written April 13, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
And the team with the best record after the first full week of the 2009 baseball season is…The Toronto Blue Jays (tied with the Seattle Mariners). Yes, I am well aware this is not what you were expecting. However, get used to this team being near the top of the standings as they are for real. The combination of speed and power is top notch. Alex Rios and Vernon Wells are two of the most underrated players in all of baseball. They each have above average speed and a good dose of pop in their bat. Aaron Hill is one of the league’s top second baseman, that is when he is playing. Hill has a tendency to get hurt quite often. Two of Toronto’s best young hitters have emerged onto the scene. Travis Snider and Adam Lind have looked every bit the talent that Manager Gaston and the Jays organization expected them to be. The Jays add quality role players in Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay and Rod Barajas behind the plate who all possess veteran experience. Tonight’s starter, Jesse Litsch is coming off a rough first start against Detroit going 6 innings, allowing 5 earned runs on 7 hits. Last season Litsch went 13-9 with a 3.54 ERA. Perhaps his best performances came against his opponent tonight, The Minnesota Twins. Litsch went 2-0 in both of his starts against Minnesota with an eye popping 1.23 ERA in 14.2 innings pitched. Minnesota hit only .157 against Litsch was the lowest any team hit against him. The one difference is this lineup does not consist of baseballs best hitting catcher, Joe Mauer. This game is all set up for the Jays to take. A look at Monday’s baseball odds show the Blue Jays +110 at Minnesota.
The Minnesota Twins are off to a bumpy 3-4 start looking very inconsistent in their seven games so far. They have a pretty solid pitching staff led by ace Francisco Liriano who is the most talented arm in their organization. However, their most consistent pitcher last year was Kevin Slowey who started off rocky this year giving up 5 runs on 9 hits in 6 innings of work against the Mariners. He did get the win due to great run support. Last season Slowey went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA. Now, listed in the above paragraph is how Toronto’s starter Jesse Litsch has had great success against the Twins. Kevin Slowey, has had the exact opposite against the Jays, he was dreadful last year going 0-2 in two starts with a 4.8 ERA. The key for Minnesota tonight will be to exercise their speed. So in order for them to do so, lead off man Denard Span will be the key for this team. If the speedsters like Span, Gomez, Casilla and Punto can get on base, that will set up key RBI opportunities for Justin Morneau. That’s as simple as it gets for the key to a teams success. The Jays have more talent, they have more overall power and their starter tonight has a better track record then the Twins. One big edge the Twins do have is their bullpen. Joe Nathan is one of the games best closers. If the Twins have a lead late, they’ll probably be able to hold on. That lead though, may be hard to come by tonight. The pick is below.
Haimo’s Hot Notes: The Jays are 11-5 in their last 16 games as an underdog. That just goes to show how many times this team gets under estimated. However, they are 2-8 in Litsch’s last eight starts (Refer to his numbers against the Twins to neutralize this trend in your mind). The Twins are an excellent home team, they are 37-15 in their last 52 games in the Metro Dome and 7-2 in their last nine games that Slowey started. I have time and time again went against massive trends such as the ones Minnesota holds in this game. What I would like everybody to realize is while trends are very helpful and a wonderful balancing tool (which is the reason I use them as a professional handicapper/analyst), you must always perform the “eye test” to every game. Toronto Rolls on tonight and takes the first game of the series in our MONDAY UNDERDOG SPECIAL.
Documented Record:
9-4 OVERALL
2-2 BEST BET
Jordans Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +110
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