Boise State at Fresno State Line

Written by Jack Jones

The fourth-ranked Boise State Broncos look to remain unbeaten Friday when they travel to face the Fresno State Bulldogs. There is no love lost between these former WAC rivals, though this has been a one-sided series over the past decade. The Broncos have won five straight meetings, and nine of the last 10 in this series overall. Boise State won in a 51-0 blowout at home last year, and all five of their wins against Fresno have come by 13 points or more over the last five years.

According to the college football lines for Week 6, the spread for this game is Boise State -21 over Fresno State.

Boise State

The Broncos remain a national title contender after a perfect start to the season. They opened their 2011 campaign with a huge 35-21 victory at then-No. 19 Georgia. After a bye, they would win at Toledo 40-15. Boise State (4-0, 0-0 MWC) went on to take a 27-0 halftime lead over Tulsa the following week, and coasted in the second half for a 41-21 victory. The Broncos did the same thing last Saturday, jumping out to a 30-0 lead on Nevada before allowing 10 late garbage points in a 30-10 win.

Kellen Moore is a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, and he’s off to a great start. Moore has completed 73.9 percent of his passes for 1,137 yards and 14 touchdowns to four interceptions. Doug Martin has rushed for 328 yards and four touchdowns, while D.J. Harper has tacked on 158 yards and a score. Both Martin and Harper are averaging just 3.9 yards/carry, so that’s one area this team needs to improve. Mitch Burroughs (21 receptions, 216 yards, one TD), Matt Miller (20, 206, two TD) and Tyler Shoemaker (13, 202, six TD) lead the receiving corps.

While the offense continues to put up big numbers, the defense is really the heart and soul of this team. Boise State ranks 18th in the country in total defense (298.8 yards/game) and 20th in scoring defense (16.8 points/game). The offense hasn’t been too shabby either, ranking 31st in total offense (446.8 yards/game) and 28th in scoring offense (36.5 points/game). The Broncos have been taking the foot off the gas late in games, which is a reason their offensive numbers aren’t even more gaudy.

Fresno State

The Bulldogs have been dealt a pretty difficult schedule thus far, and it doesn’t get any easier Friday. They opened their season with back-to-back road losses at California and then-No. 10 Nebraska. Fresno State did not look good against North Dakota at home in Week 3, but got their first win of the season with a 27-22 triumph. They put together their best performance of the season in a 48-24 victory at Idaho in Week 4. The Bulldogs were favored over Ole Miss at home last week, but were upset 28-38 after getting outscored 11-0 in the fourth quarter.

Fresno State (2-3, 1-0 WAC) has a very talented quarterback in Derek Carr, who is the brother of NFL QB David Carr. The sophomore is completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,291 yards and 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. They also have one of the best running backs in the country in Robbie Rouse, who has rushed for 600 yards and four touchdowns on a whopping 133 carries (26.6/game). The Bulldogs feature four receivers with at least 13 catches each. Rashad Evans has a team-high 23 receptions for 193 yards and two scores, while Jalen Saunders has turned his 17 grabs into a team-best 462 yards (27.2/reception) and four touchdowns.

What has really hurt the Bulldogs thus far is a defense that can’t seem to stop anybody. Fresno ranks 63rd in the nation in total defense (378.2 yards/game) and 97th in scoring defense (32.4 points/game). They have been extremely vulnerable against the run, ranking 81st in the land (169.2 yards/game). Offensively, the Bulldogs rank 67th in total offense (387.6 yards/game) and 51st in scoring offense (30.6 points/game).

Betting Trends

The Broncos have covered five straight in this series, and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bulldogs overall. The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings as well.

Boise State is 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 games overall, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. They are, however, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Fresno State is just 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 home games, 12-37-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. loss, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Friday games. The only trend they have working in their favor in this one is that the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

Be sure to see which team Jack Jones will be backing in this game come Friday by signing up for a premium package from this world-renown handicapper.

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