Boston Red Sox 2010 Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

After suffering an 86-year drought without a title, the Boston Red Sox won two World Series Championships in a span of four years. They would have likely been the team of the decade had the Yankees not grabbed the final title of the last decade with their championship in 2009. The Red Sox have the most passionate fans in the business, setting a big league record with 550 consecutive sellouts at Fenway Park. Boston is doing everything they can to keep up with the Yankees, including signing John Lackey to a 5-year, $82.5 million deal in the offseason. They did let Jason Bay leave in free-agency, and now they are depending a lot on Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida to play big in the outfield. Let’s see how this team stacks up in 2010.

Pitching:

The Red Sox sport one of the best rotations in the league with Jon Lester, John Lackey and Josh Beckett as their top-3 starters. Clay Buchholz is an emerging star, but the wild card may be Daisuke Matsuzaka. After going 18-3 in 2008 with a 2.90 ERA, Matsuzaka was torched all season last year with a 4-6 record and 5.76 ERA. He battled through a pair of shoulder injuries that put him on the DL. Buchholz went 7-4 with a solid 4.21 ERA in 16 starts. Lackey has posted anywhere from a 3.01 ERA to a 3.78 ERA in his last three seasons with the Angels, so the Red Sox are getting a proven Ace, and he isn’t necessarily their No. 1 guy. Lester has posted back-to-back tremendous seasons, going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 2008 and 15-8 with a 3.41 ERA in ‘09. And Beckett went 17-6 with a 3.86 ERA last season after a sub-par ‘08. Their relievers are some of the best in the business as well, with Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez. All have mid-to-high 90’s fastballs at their exposure, and Papelbon has recorded at least 37 saves each of the last 3 seasons.

Hitting:

Boston revamped their infield, bring in 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Marco Scutaro in the offseason. Beltre is one of the best defensive 3B in the league, and he swings a solid bat even though his power numbers were way down last year in Seattle. After belting 26 and 25 HR in 2007 and ‘08 respectively, he hit just 8 bombs last season. Scutaro is also a solid defensive shortstop, but he isn’t great at the plate, though his speed will help as he scored 100 runs last year for the Blue Jays. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are the heart and sole of this lineup, and there’s no reason either should have a dip in production. Both are consistently around .300 hitters with power. Catcher Victor Martinez was a huge addition last season, and he’s primed for a big year. Martinez was injured in 2008, but bounced back in ‘09 to hit .303 with 23 homers and 108 RBI. David Ortiz still managed 28 home runs and 99 RBI last season despite a slow first half, and he’ll be the DH again this season. His .238 BA from a year ago is a major concern, though. The outfield features Jacoby Ellsbury in left, Mike Cameron in center and J.D. Drew in right. Drew has finished with at least a .270 average each of the last 3 seasons, and Ellsbury has topped the .280 mark for three straight years, and his 70 stolen bases last season were huge for the Red Sox. Cameron is more of a defensive center fielder who hits for a low average, but he does have some pop in his bat, hitting 21 or more HR for 3 straight years.

Jack’s Prediction: 2nd in the AL East and OVER 94.5 Wins – The Red Sox have finished with 95 or more wins in four of the last five seasons. Knowing that alone makes me like the OVER, and with John Lackey added to the rotation, the Red Sox have the best starting staff in this division for sure, and perhaps the entire league. But they don’t have the line-up that matches the Yankees from top to bottom, which will keep them from winning this division. They lack speed from the No. 2 hitter clear through the No. 8 hitter, and though this team will hit a lot of home runs, they won’t hit for a high enough average as a team to make these home runs count.

Archived Season Previews:

2009
2008

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